Existing alliances are best bet for negotiated peace in Syria

AS fragile and partial as it is, the current ceasefire in Syria remains the only initiative that offers a ray of hope for a negotiated peace. The truce was worked out among Turkey, Russia and Iran and is purportedly supported by seven major armed opposition groups which have more than 60,000 fighters in their ranks.

Yes, there have been violations; Turkey has appealed to Iran, as a guarantor of the accord, to restrain the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, who are accused of attempting to take control of a Damascus suburb under rebel control. But more significant is the fact that the Russian navy is withdrawing its aircraft carrier battle group from the Mediterranean Sea; Moscow must be convinced that the crisis has peaked.

For too long, the civil war has been a proxy war involving all of Syria's neighbours as well as the great powers. Ever since 2011, when US President Barack Obama demanded that Mr Assad step down, the situation has been a free-for-all, initially involving the intelligence agencies of Turkey and the US supplying arms and war material to Sunni rebels, paid for by Saudis and Qataris. But the rebels were not united in their vision for a future without Mr Assad. On the other side, Damascus has had a defence pact with Teheran since 2006. Even so, the anti-Assad forces may have prevailed, except that in 2015, the Russians, who back Mr Assad's regime, intervened militarily. After that, it became clear that with the Russian defence shield over Damacus, there was little chance of an outright rebel victory.