Four scenarios for business from Ukraine conflict

THE Ukraine conflict entered its third month in April with little greater clarity on the likely outcome. It is in this context of uncertainty that scenario planning can potentially help to build corporate preparedness by seeking to illuminate the diverse, possible futures that could emerge in coming months.

Perhaps the 2 critical uncertainties which will shape the future of the war are whether it will end in 2022, or continue into 2023 and potentially well beyond. And secondly, whether the conflict will be restricted to the borders of Ukraine, or extend into other countries, including possibly Nato nations such as Poland.

Four scenarios flow from this, with the least positive outcome for many firms being the one which would see the conflict escalate beyond Ukraine's borders, to involve Nato countries, and continue into 2023 and potentially beyond. However, with advance planning and foresight, it may still be able to build enhanced resilience to risks in even this worst case outcome.