Georgia on my mind

GOING into the 2020 presidential election, Democrats were dreaming many political dreams, some of which proved to be impossible: That their candidate Joe Biden would score a landslide victory over President Donald Trump; that the Democrats would expand their majority in the House of Representatives and take over the Senate; that they would increase their electoral support among Blacks, Hispanics and Asian Americans; that Candidate Biden would carry a Republican electoral bastion, the Lone Star state of Texas.

As we know by now, all of the above proved to be wishful thinking. Yet while their dream of winning Texas did not materialise, the Democrats did succeed in achieving something that only a few years ago would have been regarded as a political fantasy, with Mr Biden becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Georgia since 1992.

A state that is part of the Deep South, that seceded from the Union during the American Civil War and still flies a Confederate-themed flag, Georgia, together with the other Southern states, was seen for many years to be deep in the electoral pocket of the Republican Party.

But demographic changes - including the arrival of Hispanic and Asian American immigrants to the state, taking place against the backdrop of the Trump presidency and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic - helped create the conditions under which the "red" peach state of Georgia turned "blue", or at least "purple" last November.

A Democratic presidential candidate in Georgia could traditionally count on the support of African Americans who now constitute 33 per cent of the residents in the state while the votes of the majority of whites in the suburbs of Atlanta and other large cities went to the Republicans.

But many white-educated and professional voters have turned against the current Republican White House occupant this year, partly in response to his failed handling of the Covid-19 crisis. While President Trump still won the majority of white voters in the state, surging support among white suburban voters, especially women, explains why President-elect Biden carried the state by a narrow majority of 0.23 per cent or 12,000 votes.

The Democratic presidential candidate also benefited from the rising electoral power of the roughly 140,000 Asian Americans in the state, whose turnout during the election nearly doubled this year from 2016.

Hence according to exit polls, nearly seven out of 10 Asian American voters had cast their ballots for the Biden-Harris ticket, helping swing the state for Democrats.

And this Tuesday, Georgia, including its Asian American voters, are going to decide in two runoff elections (that Georgia holds when no candidate reaches 50 per cent in the first round) whether the Senate will remain under Republican control or switch to the Democrats and provide them and the new Democratic president with a governing majority on Capitol Hill.

If the Democrats can win both races, they will have 50 Senate seats. With the Democratic vice-president as the tie-breaker during crucial votes, the Democrats would then hold a majority.

The Democrats are represented in the Senate race by an African American pastor, Raphael Warnock, and a young Jewish American filmmaker, Jon Ossoff. Facing Mr Warnock is Kelly Loeffler, a wealthy Republican, and running against Mr Ossoff is incumbent Senator David Perdue, a businessman and a popular public figure.

Polls suggest that both races are tight with the two Republicans holding slight leads in a state that, notwithstanding President-elect Biden's victory last November, remains mostly white and conservative.

Senator Perdue enjoys the advantages of incumbency while Mr Ossoff is relatively young and inexperienced and who, like Mr Warnock, holds liberal views that are to the left of President-elect Biden.

But that both Mr Perdue and Ms Loeffler are staunch supporters of President Trump should have been considered a political asset as they run with a clear message: Elect us and secure a Republican Senate that would ensure that a Democratic President Biden would not pursue a left-leaning agenda.

But then the continuing political presence of the outgoing president has been complicating life for the two Republican Senate candidates.

President Trump continues to allege that the official results of the presidential race in Georgia were "illegitimate" and has called for the resignation of top Republican state officials, including the governor, for letting the election be "stolen" by the Democrats.

The result is that many of President Trump's supporters in the state may decide to boycott the Senate run-offs and possibly pave the way for the two Democratic candidates to win the races.

This electoral reality explains why literally every vote will count in Georgia on Tuesday, and why Asian American voters in the state, who had made a difference in November's general election, could make an impact again, and why the two parties are now targeting them.

The Democrats hope to replicate their success among Asian Americans in November on Tuesday. Both Mr Ossoff and Mr Warnock have hired outreach directors to the Asian American community and have been holding events centred around Asian American-owned small businesses, promoting ads through ethnic media, and providing translated campaign materials.

Kamala Harris, whose late mother immigrated to California from India, has campaigned in Georgia in the last few weeks, as did Andrew Yang, who is Taiwanese American and ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020, as they seek to mobilise Asian Americans ahead of the elections.

One of the Democrats' main message among Asian Americans is the importance of healthcare access and combating the pandemic, a core issue as a result of Georgia being hit hard by the novel coronavirus. President Trump's constant reference to the coronavirus as the "China virus" has angered many Asian Americans who blame the president for fanning anti-Asian sentiments.

The Republicans are also campaigning aggressively among Asian Americans, with materials from the campaigns of Mr Perdue and Ms Loeffler portraying Mr Ossoff and Mr Warnock as "radical leftists" with ties to China. This anti-Communist message has resonated with right-leaning Asian American voters, especially those who have immigrated from countries with Communist governments, such as China and Vietnam.

Republican Congresswomen-elect Young Kim and Michelle Steel of California, whose election victories were seen as signs of rising Asian American political power, have visited Georgia to rally Asian American voters in support of the Republican Senate candidates. Ms Kim and Ms Steel, who became two of the first three Korean Americans elected to Congress, both defeated incumbent Democrats to reclaim pieces of the Orange county that Republicans lost in the "blue wave" of 2018. Republicans hope that they would help them persuade Asian American voters to block a "blue wave" in Georgia.