Global recession? It's not happening yet, but it's a possibility

IT'S beginning to look like the economic game of 2016 will be a tug of war, defined by a simple question. Will the plodding but steady US recovery be derailed by the weakness of so-called "emerging market" economies, led by China, Brazil and others? The betting (so far) is that the American recovery will survive, but it's hardly a sure thing. The outcome, needless to say, could decisively affect the presidential election.

The fact that the question is being asked at all constitutes a stunning reversal of conventional wisdom. After the 2008-09 financial crisis, the consensus was that the New World (China and other emerging-market countries) would rescue the Old (the United States, Europe and Japan). With rapidly expanding middle classes, the New World - China especially - would continue to import vast quantities of raw materials and sophisticated consumer and investment goods.

Events haven't gone according to script.