Go for deep transformation, beyond shallow transition

CHANGE is everywhere. But is it the right kind of change? The crises we face get deeper while the solutions too often remain shallow. It appears we are at the crossroads between shallow transitions and deep transformations, with a clear need for the latter both in the sustainability movement and across society.

Shallow or deep? The nature of change

“Shallow transitions” are well-intentioned actions that address specific problems and their symptoms, but in isolation. They can look promising on the surface but fail to tackle the root causes of the challenges we face. They can trigger unintended consequences, ignore opportunities for multiple benefits across multiple systems, and run out of the momentum needed for real, lasting change.

Take for example the shifts towards renewable energy, which are pivotal in tackling carbon emissions and hitting climate targets. Yet, the energy industry talks about energy as units – kilowatt-hours – not about people, or of renewable energy as inherently good when they also come with risks such as labour rights issues due to exposure to hazardous chemicals, or biodiversity losses such as the Great Indian Bustard losing its natural habitat due to solar implementation.

In the global food system, sales of meat-free burgers and dairy free milk are booming; no-deforestation commitments are increasingly common in palm oil and other supply chains. Yet, the core of the food system remains driven by mono-crop production – growing a single crop annually on the same land – based on maximum production efficiency at lowest cost. In the world of businesses, there is strong momentum coming from net-zero strategies and the burgeoning environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) profession, but they are often constrained by quarterly reporting, nervous investors and legacy reputation.

In contrast to shallow transitions, deep transformation means more radical change to put us on a pathway to a qualitatively different – and better – future. There is no blueprint, but key features of deep transformation include: changing the goals of systems we have created, for instance an agricultural system that looks beyond efficiency to prioritise universal nutrition; building capacity for natural and social systems to thrive in the face of continued disruption; addressing root causes of our challenges; and reimagining the relationship between the economy, society and nature.

In energy, this means going beyond thinking about how to generate the same amount of KWh from renewable sources, but reconfiguring our energy needs and overhauling the entire system – for instance, having supply chains for renewables that respect the rights of those mining the minerals.

In food, this means moving past efficiency and production to consider the multiple goals of soil health, biodiversity, resilient livelihoods, healthy food, and affordable nutrition. And for businesses, we need to remember that the rules of the economic system are not fixed – they were created by people and social norms over decades. There are exciting pockets of innovation configuring business models that create value equitably and provide a glimpse into a different role for business in society.

Change in practice

These are huge aims. So what does it look like in practice to go in the right direction? Four things would seem essential.

First, to reset ambition. We need to look beyond “reducing harm” or “sustainability” as the goal and set one that goes beyond solving problems to reconfiguring our future.

Second, integrate social justice into transitions. For too long, social and environmental interventions have been developed in silos. One organisation or team addresses wages, incomes, or poverty; another tackles carbon, pollution or ecology.

What is needed is integration; solutions capable of addressing multiple issues simultaneously. Solutions – whether for solar farms or alternative protein investments – need to be developed with people and in ways that enable them to build thriving livelihoods and meet their needs and aspirations.

Third, embrace turbulence and the scale of change. Few of us like risk and uncertainty. But successful change-leadership now means embracing just how much change is coming and, frankly, how much change we need to create a better future.

John Elkington, one of the original founders of the sustainability movement in Europe, describes this eloquently as “decomposition”: “There is a sense that there is something deeply broken in the current system, and therefore it’s only a matter of time before it decomposes in front of our eyes .... As the system starts to break up around us, we have to ask ‘now what’? What are we now trying to build? I find that both exciting and terrifying probably in equal measure.”

A mentality that simply aims to replace like with like does not grasp this process: replace 100 GW of fossil-fuel power with solar power, or sourcing 100 tonnes of Amazonian palm oil with deforestation-free palm. The mentality that embraces turbulence knows that the jobs our children will have do not yet exist, but the transition is to create them, and create them well.

Finally, embrace systemic mindsets and joined-up thinking. In order to ensure that the changes we seed now are long-lasting, we must recognise the complexity and inter-relationships within the key systems on which we rely. We need more action on deeper levers of change – the mindsets that drive us, or the connections we make with others to reshape how whole systems work.

Deep transformation can navigate us to a just and regenerative future, in which our social and environmental systems are capable of adapting to and addressing challenges of the future with flexibility and resilience. Where the world has moved beyond artificial divides between people, nature and economy.

And the meaning of a “prosperous” economy is redefined as one that meets the needs of everyone in society to thrive, distributes value fairly, and operates in harmony with nature and planetary boundaries.

Caroline Ashley is global director of system change programmes at Forum for the Future