Has the promise of the post-Cold War era faded?

LATE December is traditionally a time to look forward to the hope of a new year, especially in the midst of the worst pandemic for a century. Yet, at a time of growing geopolitical disorder too, this month is also a key historical moment to look back in the rear-view mirror as it is now 3 decades since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the initial promise of the post-Cold War world.

It was then that US President George HW Bush proclaimed a "new world order". At much the same time, Francis Fukuyama wrote The End of History and the Last Man which argued that the worldwide spread of liberal democracy and free-market capitalism of the West and its lifestyle signalled the end point of humanity's sociocultural evolution and the final form of human government.

Yet, this optimistic vision of a universal order of liberal, capitalist, democratic states living in peace and contentment has been replaced by a rather different global landscape today. Many of the key gains of the post-World War II era are being tested, with the security of Europe and Asia, the advance of democratic government, the resilience of open markets, the centrality of individual rights, and the promise of human progress potentially all in play.