IMF and World Bank meetings? Don't bother

IF you want to know how the global economy is doing, what the risks to the financial system are, or whether stocks and bonds are poised for a crash, don't bother going for this week's annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington - or at least, don't listen to the speeches made there.

You will be treated to tales of how - amid the few worrying things on the macro and micro-economic front - the probability is that the global economy will continue to muddle through: officials believe it is "responsible" to peddle this line, and market players don't wish to spoil their own fun.

Having covered more of these annual meetings than I can remember, I cannot recall one where an impending crisis was predicted. There might have been hints about what would happen if a worst-case scenario unfolded, but these were always qualified by emollient assurances that the middle-case scenario did not justify pessimism.