Inflation: There isn't a lot that Biden can do about it

LET'S start with the following supposition which some would regard as counterintuitive: US presidents and the policies they pursue have very little effect on the periodic growth and decline of the American economy (aka business cycle).

It's true that US administrations try to manage the business cycles through fiscal policies, including government spending and raising or lowering taxes. But the power to adjust interest rates - the main tool of monetary policy, adjusting interest rates - is in the hands of the US Federal Reserve that is independent from presidential power.

Yet, a basic supposition of American political life is that the condition of the US economy determines the outcome of presidential elections, and in particular whether an incumbent president gets re-elected or not. Or to quote what has acquired the status of a political axiom, "It's the economy, stupid!"