Is the honeymoon over for Biden?

MOST incoming American presidents have enjoyed a few weeks of popularity, known as the "honeymoon period". Congress, including the opposition party, and the news media, are willing to give new presidents a break at the start of their first terms as they ease into office.

After all, the man entering the White House had won the presidential election and is seen as someone who received a mandate to lead from the American people.

In recent years, against the backdrop of growing political polarisation, the honeymoon period has shrunk to not more than 100 days during which the new leader in town enjoys more political leeway in terms of enacting new policies.

So it's not surprising that after more than 100 days in office, President Joe Biden is now entering the post-honeymoon period which traditionally tends to happen when a president confronts an unexpected domestic or international crisis.

President Biden, who has been able to follow the guidelines set up by his political and media aides, is suddenly being drawn into unforeseen territories, testing his leadership. Like in a real marriage, the romance starts to dissipate as reality bites.

President Biden - who had spent four decades in Washington, including two terms as vice-president - probably expected exactly what would happen, that despite his overall earlier popularity, the tremors would start to rattle his ambitious policy agenda, sooner than later.

The surprise has been that on both the domestic and international fronts, the pressures on him have been coming from unexpected directions.

The conventional wisdom in Washington has been that during his first months in office the new president would enjoy a period of continuing economic growth, including rising employment. That should have provided him with political momentum to press ahead with grand and expensive economic plans despite Republican opposition.

As Americans are being vaccinated and even start shedding their face masks, marking the end of the deadly pandemic, re-open their businesses and re-hire employees, the expectation was that the economy could only grow. And the occupant of the White House would be seen as the one responsible for all the good economic news.

Most experts still expect the economy to continue growing. But then no economy progresses in a linear way, and as the White House is now discovering, many obstacles can end up on the way towards recovery.

CLOUDS IN THE SKY

In President Biden's case, a major rise in oil prices, signs of inflationary pressures, and a sense of uncertainty in the job market, are clouding the skies. All these play into the hands of the Republicans and raise doubts about his ability to get his domestic spending proposals - including a US$2.3 trillion jobs and infrastructure package and US$1.8 trillion in more domestic spending - approved.

First came a disappointing employment report indicating that the US economy added only 266,000 jobs in April, far less than forecasts of economists, who had predicted that America would add one million jobs last month.

Moreover, there are reports that factories and manufacturers have trouble finding specialised and even entry-level workers while small businesses like restaurants are complaining that the generous unemployment benefits provided by the government as part of its economic stimulus plans are keeping people out of the workplace: Why get a job that pays the minimum wage working as a waiter when the unemployment cheques you receive allow you to stay at home and watch soap operas on television?

The labour shortage means that employers compete for workers by raising wages which could also contribute to the other problem the economy is facing - that inflation is on the uptick.

Administration officials argue that a rapid economic recovery can create inflationary bumps that can be dealt with through the US central bank's monetary policies.

But there are concerns that these inflationary signs are not temporary. Indeed, the Labour Department has reported that consumer prices rose 4.2 per cent in April, sending shock waves across Wall Street and putting downward pressure on the Dow.

Adding to the upward pressure on prices was the shutdown of a critical oil pipeline on the East Coast, the Colonial Pipeline, after its management was forced to pay a huge ransom to an international hacking group.

The shutdown of the pipeline - which delivers half of the transport fuels for the Atlantic coast of the country - has led to a major jump in petrol prices and ensuing panic buying, adding to existing anxieties over inflation.

From the perspective of Congressional Republicans, the Biden administration's spending programmes are responsible for the overheating economy and rising inflation, and the last thing the economy needs now are more fiscal economic plans and the mailing of more government cheques to Americans at a time of growing labour shortage.

Hence notwithstanding his call for bipartisan unity, President Biden - who invited Republican congressional leaders to meet with him at the White House last week - will be forced to face opposition in Congress to slow down the pace of the more than US$4 trillion spending plans.

In particular, the White House would have to shrink down the size of the social-economic programmes that are favoured by members of the Democratic Party's progressive wing.

President Biden is also finding himself attacked by Republicans while being criticised by left-leaning members of his party for his handling of what is turning out to be his first foreign policy crisis - the outbreak of violence between Israelis and Palestinians that threatens to turn into a wider Middle East war.

President Biden, very much like his two predecessors in office, has been trying to shift the focus of US foreign policy from the Middle East to East Asia, with most experts predicting that his first challenge would be centred on the growing tensions between China and the US.

American leaders may want to forget the Middle East but the Middle East doesn't seem to forget them. After the militant Hamas Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip started raining rockets on Israeli cities, Israeli forces bombarded Hamas centres in Gaza Strip, while communal tensions between Jews and Arabs started spreading to Israel's cities.

In response, President Biden declared that Israel had the right to defend itself against the missile attacks, expressed hope that the violence would end soon, and sent an adviser to the region to try to calm things down.

Republicans have accused the administration of not providing full support for Israel, an important American ally. "Biden's weakness and lack of support for Israel is leading to new attacks on our allies," former president Donald Trump said in an issued statement.

HARSH CRITICISMS

But the Democratic president has faced even harsher criticism from members of his party's powerful progressive wing who are challenging the traditional support of the Democrats for the Jewish State, represented by the likes of President Biden.

Hence progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), insisted that statements in support for Israel by the White House "dehumanise Palestinians", while Ilhan Omar, a Democratic Congresswoman from Minnesota, ridiculed the administration's claims to be putting human rights at the centre of US foreign policy. "You aren't prioritising human rights," she tweeted. "You're siding with an oppressive occupation."

The tensions over Israel have even spilled over into the New York race for mayor, after the leading Democratic contender, Andrew Yang, issued a staunch pro-Israel tweet amid the ongoing conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Mr Yang's tweet drew swift condemnation from left-leaning Democrats with AOC calling out his "chest-thumping statement". He then apologised for his earlier tweet and for not acknowledging the toll on the Palestinian side.

If the violence in the Middle East would not come to an end anytime soon, Democrats like AOC are going to put pressure on the president to "do something" about it, and in particular, to put diplomatic pressure on Israel and make cuts in American aid to it, ideas that would be denounced by the Republicans as well as by pro-Israel Democrats.

President Biden could then find himself in a political no-win situation, being drawn into the mess in the Middle East while he is trying to make the economic recovery at home and the growing challenge from China his two main policy priorities.