Keeping spirits up - and an eye on the job market - amid the current slowdown

AT last, light at the end of the tunnel. After a long season of gloomy economic data, Singapore's industrial output in September surprised on the upside with 0.1 per cent growth, beating forecasts of continued contraction. August's reading was also revised upwards.

It is far too early to say if manufacturing has bottomed out, not least as global uncertainty persists. Yet such glimmers of hope play a helpful secondary role of bolstering domestic confidence.

Thus far, Singapore's economic weakness "has been largely contained within the electronics-related segments", said the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in its half-yearly macroeconomic review on Wednesday. The ongoing task is to ensure the weakness does not spread, with business and consumer confidence being key to this. This was highlighted in a review, in the MAS report, of the last three recessions: the Asian financial crisis, the dot-com bubble, and the global financial crisis. In "Tier 3" industries - those furthest from the "Tier 1"ones at the epicentre of an economic shock - declines in growth were due to "broader pullback in business and consumer confidence" rather than inter-sectoral linkages.