Kyoto II - is it a done deal?

THIS is a somewhat flippant headline as a new climate deal is a serious matter. It is being pursued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that was set up in 1988 to "stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (ie human-induced) interference with the climate system".

Regular meetings known as COP (Conference of the Parties) discuss the reports, now in version 5 as of 2014. The most notable meeting was COP 3 at Kyoto 1987, which led to a globally binding Protocol - its first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. The second commitment period began on Jan 1, 2013, to end in 2020. COP 21 will take place in Paris in December 2015 and I venture that it will be a "done deal" - "Kyoto II" will be signed off.

I read an academic paper a while ago about the 1987 Montréal Protocol which led to a ban on the use of CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons). Discussions took several years but were aided by (a) being tightly focused on "ozone issues" using a composite weighting function that combined the effects of all pollutants into a single number; (b) having firms cease CFC use much earlier than the convention date as the US had already banned CFC use in aerosols; (c) the CFC sector in each country did not include the entire spectrum of their national economy, and (d) a well-informed public demanded the easily visualised "ozone hole" be filled in as soon as possible to protect their personal health. Heads of government came to Montreal ready to sign, and within 90 days the ban on CFCs' use had become globally binding.