Looking ahead

1. World growth steady but sluggish

World growth has been stuck in a sluggish phase since 2011, and we expect this to continue in 2016. Growth prospects for 2016 have deteriorated during 2015, in particular due to poor performances in key emerging markets (EMs). The advanced economies have generally performed a bit better, helped by lower oil prices, and we expect this to continue in 2016. But with EM growth still soft, we expect world gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by only 2.6 per cent next year, little changed from 2015's 2.5 per cent rise and below consensus (and the long-term average) of 2.8 per cent growth.

2. Only two Fed hikes in 2016