Malaysia's fight against the pandemic is at the crossroads

IT'S crunch time for Malaysia's fight against the Covid-19 pandemic that could seal the prospects of this major South-east Asian nation over the medium term - perhaps even beyond.

While that's not vastly different from regional peers, especially Indonesia which is seeing a marked increase in new infections, Malaysia's unpredictable political climate could make things less conducive to tackle the virus. This is more so as the spectre of (more) political drama looms amid heated debate currently on when Parliament should reconvene once the state of emergency is lifted on August 1, as scheduled.

Recall that Malaysia declared a state of emergency in January to curb the sharp spread of the virus. The move, led by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, was deemed by critics as politically motivated and a means to tighten his grip over the country's leadership, which was waning as calls for his removal and a snap election grew louder. Others threw their weight behind the decision, as they felt it would give the administration room to focus on the worsening health crisis sans political distractions.

Mr Muhyiddin's regime has just over a month left to flatten the curve under the emergency powers. But data, some five months later, indicates that the national emergency has failed to stem the pandemic, although Malaysian residents and businesses have endured curbs of various forms and degrees. Fresh outbreaks remain stubbornly high, straining the robust healthcare system of Asean's fourth-largest economy.

Except for a noticeable, albeit short-lived dip, in late March, daily new cases rose to a pandemic record of over 9,000 last month. On Tuesday, Malaysia recorded 4,743 new cases with 77 deaths versus 3,309 new cases and four deaths on Jan 12, day one of the emergency. Total cases in the country have also breached the 700,000 mark - the third highest in Asean after Indonesia and the Philippines, according to World Health Organization data.

As resource-blessed Malaysia appears to be at a crossroads in the fight against coronavirus, some pockets of hope have emerged. For the first time in just over a month, fresh daily cases dipped below 5,000 this week, although high Covid-19 test positivity rates somewhat mar that.

After a disappointing start, Malaysia has ramped up its Covid-19 vaccination drive - key to combating the virus.

In the past week or so, more than 200,000 jabs a day were administered - the highest since Malaysia began its programme four months ago. It has set a new target of 300,000 jabs a day by next month. So far, 14 per cent of the population have been fully vaccinated.

Also last week, Mr Muhyiddin's administration outlined a four-phase national recovery plan to ease curbs based on three metrics - average daily infection rate, ICU bed capacity, and the percentage of the population completely vaccinated.

If things go as planned and cases dip below 500 and 60 per cent of the population is vaccinated, a full swing re-opening awaits residents after October. This framework, long overdue, may be the most clear and realistic plan from the Malaysian government yet but its doability rests squarely on execution and follow-through.

Could June be the long-awaited tipping point for Malaysia that has spent much of the past year on the back foot? Or, will its fluid state of politics meddle with the encouraging trajectory? The sun shines brightest after the storm but that remains a toss-up for now.