A marginal vote for Brexit may trigger second referendum

THE final countdown to next week's landmark "in-out" European Union (EU) referendum in Britain is now underway with a series of recent polls indicating that sentiment is moving towards "leave". With the result of the June 23 ballot still highly uncertain, politicians and financial markets are actively exploring the ramifications of two key scenarios if Britain votes to exit the EU.

The implications of a leave vote will depend, in part, upon whether there is a strong vote to exit (55 per cent or more of the vote), or a much narrower vote (53 per cent or less). Both scenarios could trigger significant political and economic turbulence, and most likely force the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron only a year after his landmark General Election success in May 2015 in winning the first majority Conservative government for over two decades.

While the pathway forward from a strong vote to leave is relatively clear cut, there is significant uncertainty about what may arise from a more marginal vote to leave. For while many voters believe that the latter outcome will definitely lead to Britain leaving the EU, the reality may be more complicated.