Never mind the climate talks, every country’s on its own
THE COP27 gathering in Sharm el-Sheikh that began at the weekend promises all the bells and whistles as United Nations (UN) climate change conference events go. A leaders’ summit on Nov 7 will set the pace for two weeks of negotiations to tackle difficult issues such as finance, decarbonisation, adaptation and farming practices. At the end, everyone will agree that this year’s climate disasters show how little time is left to get on with the urgent task of keeping global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Every delegate will be reminded of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ earlier warning: “A third of Pakistan flooded. Europe’s hottest summer in 500 years. The Philippines hammered. The whole of Cuba in blackout.” And Hurricane Ian delivered a reminder that climate science is ignored at one’s peril.
Yet, will all that hard bargaining that will go into a carefully crafted communique at meeting’s end on Nov 28 really do anything? There’s little room for optimism if past COP meeting outcomes are any guide. For instance, COP21 in 2015 delivered the Paris Agreement. It was hailed as the first legally binding treaty on climate change that committed 196 signatories to limit global warming to 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels. The rich countries promised to provide developing countries with US$100 billion a year for climate mitigation and adaptation by 2020.
COP26 produced pledges on phasing out subsidies for coal and other fossil fuels. There was an agreement to halt clearing of the world’s remaining forests and reverse land degradation. Even Brazil, home of the Amazon rainforest, signed on. The US and the European Union solemnly pledged to cut methane gas emissions, mostly from animal farming, by 30 per cent by 2030. The US and China, the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases, agreed to work in tandem to fight climate change over this decade. They vowed to work together on increasing the use of renewable energy. They also agreed to further develop and deploy carbon capture technology.
Looking back, these pledges look more like a catalogue of failures rather than milestones of progress. According to the Climate Action Tracker website, the world is still on track to hit 2.4 deg C of warming by 2100, which will not come as a surprise to any climate scientist. The annual US$100 billion promised for climate mitigation has never been met. Forests are still being cleared at an alarming rate. The outgoing Bolsonaro government in Brazil actually encouraged ranchers to clear the Amazon forests for cattle pasture during its time in office. Washington and Beijing are no longer talking to each other on climate matters (or on anything else, for that matter). And European priorities changed drastically once war broke out in Ukraine.
This is not to say that it is all for show. Last week the Climate Investment Funds, a partnership that channels concessional loans from the World Bank and other development banks, launched a US$2.5 billion coal transition investment programme. South Africa, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, representing over 15 per cent of coal-related emissions globally, have been selected as the first beneficiaries. But against the scale of what needs to be done, efforts like these are puny.
So, the real message out of COP27 would seem to be: Each country will have to work out its own strategy for climate adaptation. The collective will to act together is simply not there.
