No surprises behind move to end Philippines-US military pact

PHILIPPINE President Rodrigo Duterte's decision last week to end the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US seems to have set off much lamentation and grave warnings about its potential impact on the military balance in the South China Sea.

We are warned that without a foothold in the Philippines, the US Navy will be hard put to conduct its Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea. If the pact is undone, the argument goes, there will be no one to challenge China's claim to the islands and seas within its infamous nine-dash line. It would also mean the end of intelligence sharing on Islamist radicals' activities on Mindanao and the other southern islands.

And why has it come to this? The conventional wisdom seems to be that Mr Duterte is miffed that one of his political allies lost his US visa. But some academics differ. They speculate that Mr Duterte had planned the move, and that his friend's visa cancellation was just the cover he needed to trigger the 180-day countdown that will terminate the pact.