Political systems are failing to catch up

SO YOU'VE decided to enrol in a PhD programme in computer science in 2020. Consider the following: By the time you submit your doctoral dissertation in, say, 2025 and publish it in 2030, much of what you have written would probably feel out-of-date, if not archaic, in light of the astounding developments in computer technology in the last 30 years.

In a way, it would not be an exaggeration to suggest that our current political systems - the ideas that underlie them, the men and women who lead them, and the legal and bureaucratic structures they administer - reside in social, economic and technological realities that have been transformed and will continue to be revolutionised in the lifetime of our average politician.

Indeed, the continuing failure of contemporary political systems to respond to the sea changes in the way we live, work, and play explains in part why we have witnessed so much political unrest in the last decade - not only in Western countries, but also elsewhere in the world; why citizens in the United States, France, Britain, as well as in Lebanon, Chile and Hong Kong, are so angry, if not full of rage.

The irony is that in many ways and notwithstanding the way the media covers the world, and contrary to depressing narratives in the popular dystopian novels and films, we are now in the midst of a Golden Age in the evolution of world civilisation that is driven by human progress.

After conquering horrible diseases in recent decades, most of us are healthier and are expected to live longer and in safer environments than our immediate predecessors. The "pursuit of happiness" that was celebrated as a human right in the US Declaration of Independence is now a common global pursuit in societies where "life" once basically meant that you were born, got married, had children, worked hard - and then died.

Despite all the never-ending complaints about lousy jobs and economic inequality, we do live in a world that is richer and more full of opportunities, demonstrated dramatically by the eradication of poverty and the rise of the middle class in China and India as they entered the global economy.

While the "woke" political culture dominates the zeitgeist in the West, igniting fears that the theocrats and the fascists are about to take over, in reality the progress in terms of the rights of women, minorities and gays in recent years has been astounding, while the rate of murders and rapes has been falling.

As we continue to get bombarded with bloody images of terrorism and civil wars, we need to remember that the world has enjoyed relative peace since the end of World War II. Yes, international terrorism is horrible, but let us not forget that at the height of the Cold War, people had lived under the fear of complete nuclear annihilation. No more.

So if it feels so good, why does it sometimes feel so bad? In addition to the hysterical 24/7 media coverage that makes it look as though every domestic and international crisis spells the end of the world, our main challenge is that the political and intellectual elites have yet to guide us - and we are forced to deal with the real problems we face, such as changing job markets, the rising flows of immigration, the social and economic impact of the Internet, and climate change.

One way to explain this failure by the elites is to understand that most of them have acquired intellectual tools that may have helped provide answers to problems in the past but are no longer useful. Indeed, if employed now to promote policies, these tools could do more harm than good.

One case in point: the Phillips curve. Generations of economists and policymakers, including those leading the US central bank, have accepted as a scientific law the concept that the change in unemployment within an economy has a predictable effect on price inflation, and that monetary policy should assume an inverse relationship between the two.

The venerating of this economic doctrine and in particular, the irrational fear of inflation, explains why Western governments have pursued in the recent two decades punishing economic austerity programmes that have devastated the middle class and ignited the explosion of populism.

Similarly, what we refer to as "immigration policy" including the approach towards refugees, evolved in the aftermath of World War II and the lessons it offered. At that time no one could have envisioned the realities of today, of hundreds of thousands of economic migrants - very different from the political refugees fleeing Nazi Germany and the communist bloc - seeking sanctuary in the industrialised West.

The principles that guided the architects of the welfare state at a time when much of the working class was employed in the manufacturing industry and becoming part of the middle class, when large business corporations controlled Western economies and provided secure jobs, and when the job of the government was to ensure that no one was left behind - these principles cease to be relevant in our new social-economic universe.

From that perspective, both the New Socialists on the political left who urge punishing the rich and the innovators, and the free marketers on the political right who believe that lower taxes and deregulation would solve everything, are providing us with yesterday's answers to the questions of tomorrow

That includes the challenge of climate change: socialists pledge to resolve it by nationalising the capitalist economy while free marketers dismiss the issue as a hoax.

In fact, even the political terms that are being overused now - the "left" and "right" - have become irrelevant at a time when remnants of the working class are now supporting "nationalist" right-wing parties, and well-to-do urban professionals are associated with the "progressive" left.

Voters will now have at least an opportunity to test the ideas the politicians on the political right are advancing. These are represented by the nationalist leaders who now are in charge of the United States, Great Britain, Australia and India. They will discover whether "nationalism" - another idea rooted in the past - can provide answers to their current challenges.