Risk agility and instinctive decision making in a world fraught with uncertainty

THE Covid-19 pandemic has served to highlight many of the existing vulnerabilities of the international economic system - some of which were lurking just beneath the surface while others were obvious for all to see. It turns out that many businesses were already close to having to declare bankruptcy, some sectors of retail were already in the process of becoming irrelevant, and growing wealth inequality was already on the precipice of leading to civil disturbance in rich and poor countries alike.

Covid-19 essentially hit the "fast forward" button on emerging trends in a variety of sectors of national economies, hastening the demise of the shopping mall, laying bare how unnecessary being physically located in commercial work spaces is, and sounding the death knell for numerous 100+ year-old brands that had failed to adapt to the blistering pace of change in the digital economy. Failure to contemplate and embrace the future is leaving carnage in its wake.

The onslaught of dramatic change that has accompanied Covid-19 reminds us that fragile systems crack when exposed to unexpected events while antifragile systems have the ability to resist shocks. The organisations that will survive this pandemic flourish on uncertainty, chaos and disruption. In order to thrive, businesses must therefore develop resilience toward antifragility, become more agile, and expand their horizons. Instinctive decision-making is rare in all but a handful of large organisations. The instinctive leader makes decisions unafraid of course corrections. Intuitive leaders may weigh empirical data and consult peers and colleagues in the process, but in the end, they rely on their sense of smell and gut feeling to guide their decision making process.