Russia tests the West’s resolve
IT MAY not be Cold War 2.0, but Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has clearly transformed the global system. It has revitalised the Western alliance and forced it to gather its diplomatic, military and economic power in response to the most serious threat to international order and peace since the end of the Cold War.
Indeed, the West has demonstrated a remarkable sense of unity in the face of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, reacting swiftly and effectively to what Russian president Vladimir Putin had expected to be a walk in the park.
In addition to inflicting enormous economic pain on Russia through targeted and punishing sanctions, the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies have provided military assistance to Ukraine that has contributed to its success thus far in defending its capital Kiev and in pushing back Russian troops from other areas.
Moreover, not only have Russia’s efforts to generate disunity among the Western allies failed. The invasion has in fact enhanced the status of NATO, with Finland and Sweden edging closer to join the military organisation and Britain offering the two countries security assurances against the Russian threat.
But it’s clearly too early for the West to declare victory in what could become a prolonged and costly conflict during which Russia will test the solidarity and resolve of the alliance, and continue to create rifts among its members.
In fact, with the war grinding on and the sanctions on Russia impacting on the entire global economy in the form of supply chain pressures and rising energy and food prices, there are signs of a certain restiveness among governments and publics, that some observers describe as “Ukraine fatigue”.
Hence with Hungary refusing to sign on to an embargo on Russian oil and growing discontent in Germany over the costs of the ban, the European Union (EU) is finding it more difficult to impose it.
At the same time, there are indications that the Americans and the Europeans disagree over the alliance’s long-term strategy with regards to the conflict with Russia.
While Washington is intent on increasing the military and economic pressures on Russia and weakening its ability to threaten its neighbours, France and other governments believe that Russia’s interests would have to be accommodated as part of an agreement to end the war. And Turkey, a member of NATO, has expressed reservations about Sweden and Finland joining the military grouping.
Yet despite rising energy and food prices, which have been aggravated by the war, there are no signs of political fatigue in Washington. And the American public, according to opinion polls, supports the Ukrainian people in their defence against Russian aggression.
If anything, President Joe Biden’s goal of continuing to increase the military and economic pressure on President Putin enjoys wide bipartisan support on Capitol Hill, where the House of Representatives voted 368 to 57 last week in favour of a US$40 billion aid package for Ukraine.
There is no doubt that Putin is hoping the West would tire before Russia does, and that the growing costs of the war, including rising energy costs, food shortages and surging inflation, would erode Western determination and allow him to achieve his goals in Ukraine. The US and its allies need to stay steadfast and ensure that the Russian leader be proven wrong.
