In search of a Japanese Macron-like saviour

JAPANESE politics has reverted to a "status quo ante" situation - or, to put it more bluntly, it has reached an apparent dead end. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic Party is firmly back in control while the main opposition Democratic Party, once seen as a force for change, has collapsed.

To all intents and purposes, Japan has become a "single-party democracy" where the electorate has little or no chance of booting out the ruling party no matter how badly it performs, whatever political scandals it gets involved in and however low its voter ratings sink.

Against this rather depressing background, the search for a "Japanese Macron" to appear deus ex machina-like from the wings and save the country from the risk of totalitarianism has begun. But when and whence shall come such a political saviour? That is the question.

When Tokyo's feisty and popular governor Yuriko Koike suggested last week that Japan needs "new paths to political reform" and not just a shoring up of traditional parties and policies, she probably had herself in mind, not as a President Emmanuel Macron but as a kind of latter-day Joan of Arc.

In a sense, Ms Koike is Macron-like. After challenging Mr Abe's LDP and making a successful run (against the party's wishes) for the Tokyo governorship she went on to form a new political party, Tokyoites First, which promptly went on to seize control of the Tokyo metropolitan assembly.

This resembled the way that former investment banker Mr Macron seized control of the Elysee Palace after forming his own party, En Marche. But former TV anchor Ms Koike may not be ready to step into the national limelight just yet. She has her work cut out preparing for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

So who will be the "Japanese Macron?" Another Japanese politician - independent Masaru Wakasa, who is close to Ms Koike - said on Monday he has established a new political group, the Nippon First no Kai (Japan First group) to be led by himself. An alliance with Ms Koike seems likely later.

Veteran Japanese political analyst Minoru Morita believes, however, that the next Macron could come from the ranks of regional politics - a prefectural mayor, for example - in Japan rather than from the arena of national politics. There is no shortage of suitable candidates, he says.

Could all this be just a passing fad on the part of star-struck Japanese looking for a charismatic new leader to relieve the monotony of generations of "grey old men"? Former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's son Shinjiro, an LDP member, has been seen as another "new Macron".

But Japanese voters' desire for change goes deeper than mere passing fancy and has become rooted in a deep cynicism about politics and politicians in general. The LDP has been seen (not least by it own members) as the "natural" party of power for decades in Japan.

It was a faction-ridden party with different interest groups sharing power among themselves, often to the detriment of the public but then, as now, there was no real alternative to the LDP. There was a Socialist Party but in the end it sold out to the LDP in return for a notional power-sharing arrangement.

And there was an unusually pragmatic Communist Party and the lay-Buddhist-backed Komeito Party that sees itself more as the "conscience" of the LDP than an alternative political force.

All this appeared to change when Ichiro Ozawa created the Democratic Party of Japan which held power from 2009 to 2012. But the DPJ collapsed after Mr Ozawa got involved in one of Japan's seemingly never-ending scandals involving alleged funding "scandals" (which are really devices to trip up ambitious politicians). Mr Abe himself has become the latest victim of such plots.

Now, the LDP's hold on power looks unbreakable again as the Democratic Party (heir to the old DPJ) is collapsing - and hence the search for a saviour who hails from outside the political party establishment.

Japanese voters can always cry "a plague on all their houses" and cease to take any interest in politics or in the democratic process, as many young people appear to be doing. But thereby lies the danger of totalitarianism of a kind Japan has already experienced in its recent history.