South Korea is a role model for other economies

London

ON AUGUST 11, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) signalled that it would be revising its 2020 real (inflation-adjusted) GDP forecast for South Korea from -1.2 per cent to -0.8 per cent, adding to the confidence that the country is faring better economically than any other OECD member. On average, the group's 37 member states are projected to experience a real GDP contraction of 7.6 per cent. Worse, this news came just a day before the United Kingdom's government reported a record-breaking second-quarter contraction of 20.4 per cent, following previous forecasts that the UK economy was on track to shrink by 11.5 per cent overall this year.

Forecasts are only forecasts, and the OECD's track record is no better (or worse) than other official sources of such data. Based on my own reading of recent high-frequency indicators, I suspect that global output figures in 2020 will turn out to be less grim than many expect.