Sri Lanka, China and India - a tangled tale

NOWHERE in South Asia has democracy been so unpredictable as in Sri Lanka. Only about six weeks before the election in January 2015, incumbent president Mahinda Rajapaksa appeared unbeatable, even invincible. President since 2005, he had ended a festering and bloody civil war of 26 years with the Tamil Tigers in 2009, and the country's GDP growth averaged 7.4 per cent over the past five years. The Constitution was changed so that he could run for an unprecedented third six-year term. An early election was called two years before it was due because Mr Rajapaksa was supremely confident of victory.

The new President, Maithripala Sirisena, was the minister of health under the ex-president and a long-term ally. The day after election was announced, Mr Sirisena defected and announced his candidacy for the presidency. He went on the offensive immediately, accusing the Rajapaksa family of "taking over the control of the economy, power and the party". He said that the country was heading "towards a dictatorship", and that "what our country needs is not a king but a real human being".

With a credible presidential candidate, many sensed an opportunity to get rid of an increasingly authoritative regime where at least 50 per cent of public spending was under the control of the Rajapaksa family members. Furthermore, independent media was intimidated and muzzled, minorities were repressed and state power and media were extensively used to promote himself and his family. The turnout at the election was high, 81.5 per cent, and Mr Sirisena was elected with a 3.7 per cent majority, an event unthinkable even six weeks earlier.