Striking the right balance in Singapore’s energy trilemma

Energy security, affordability, and sustainability – these three components form the seemingly unsolvable puzzle that has plagued the energy industry, worldwide, for decades. Widely known as the energy trilemma, the term is used to describe the balance between security, equity (accessibility and affordability) and sustainability in energy production.

Solving the trilemma will allow the world to meet current and future energy demands, but many have argued that it is close to impossible due to the inability to align on which factor is most critical as well as the trade-offs needed. In the past decade, as extreme weather events and environmental disasters became more common, the world has shifted its focus from expanding energy access and improving affordability to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

As countries begin to chart a path to green recovery in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, the energy trilemma will only become increasingly complex.

Where does Singapore stand?

While governments continue to grapple with striking a balance between the three components of the energy trilemma, it is no surprise that local energy landscapes will continue to experience significant changes in areas such as production, management and consumption. It will be a challenge for all, but those with limited renewable resources such as Singapore face a tougher road ahead.

According to the World Energy Council, Singapore is among the top 10 countries in energy equity due to its ability to provide access to affordable energy. It has also been applauded for reducing its carbon footprint and its CO2 emissions per dollar of economic output is one of the lowest in the world, placing it among the 20 best-performing countries.

However, as a small and resource-constrained country that imports fuel for most of its energy needs, Singapore has to manage various obstacles in balancing the energy trilemma.

Although the government successfully tackled the issue of security when it began to import liquefied natural gas in 2013, allowing the nation to diversify its sources beyond gas pipelines from Indonesia and Malaysia, there are new challenges on the horizon in building a green energy future.

Achieving the sustainability goals set out in the Singapore Green Plan 2030 will require the nation to further reduce its carbon emissions by introducing sustainable energy sources to the mix.

The government has been making progress through the development of 4 “supply switches” – natural gas, solar energy, regional grids, and low-carbon alternatives such as hydrogen. It is also committed to renewable energy imports, and this will help to fill the gap caused by Singapore’s limited land and urban shading.

On the flip side, importing renewable energy could create security issues due to its intermittency. As a result, alternative sources such as hydrogen is an excellent option to consider as it can be imported from multiple sources and used to back up the intermittency of renewable sources once the hydrogen economy develops.

Finding the right balance through hydrogen

After years of debate about the viability of hydrogen as a clean energy source, it is perhaps time for Singapore to evaluate and advance the role it can play in supporting the country’s goals of being a sustainable and green society.

Other countries in Asia have made significant progress in achieving their vision of building a hydrogen economy. As part of its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2015), China has labelled hydrogen as a “frontier” area that it hopes to advance. Although it is lacking a national development strategy, 16 provinces and cities have introduced their five-year plans that feature hydrogen. If we look further afield, the introduction of the EU Hydrogen Strategy in 2020 is a recognition that hydrogen can and should play a bigger role in an integrated energy system.

Hydrogen is similarly gaining attention in Singapore among businesses and the government. In 2020, a group of 5 local and 2 Japanese companies signed an MOU to study the feasibility of importing and utilising the clean fuel.

Most recently, Nanofilm Technologies and Temasek formed a joint venture, Sydrogen Energy, to develop new solutions to be used in the growing hydrogen economy. But the question that remains is when hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe, can play an impactful role in helping nations achieve a sustainable and reliable energy supply.

To facilitate this transition, I believe the hydrogen economy will need to start with blue hydrogen, which is derived from fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation and storage before we are able to move towards green hydrogen. A more complete transition to the fully sustainable source is only possible with the aid of blue hydrogen, similar to how powering electric vehicles from thermal plants helps with encouraging adoption as well as the rollout of infrastructure.

Singapore has a strong history of transition to reduce its carbon emissions, initially from coal and oil to gas. As we continue to gain momentum in the adoption of renewable energy sources, the government needs to support the further development of hydrogen technologies which have the potential to allow the re-purposing of much of Singapore’s existing infrastructure, as well as provide a more elegant solution to Singapore’s unique needs than renewable imports alone.

While it is still too early to make concrete predictions, the continuous evolution of green hydrogen capabilities will mark a step forward in helping the world and Singapore achieve a better balance in the energy trilemma.

Graeme York is the president and CEO of Senoko Energy.