To his critics, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte's time in office was marked by a singular failure: his misplaced trust in China.

And it is true that his policy of offering to set aside Manila's claims in the South China Sea in return for Chinese investments in the country's infrastructure was non-productive. Indeed, his gestures emboldened Beijing. So, in 2019 and again in early 2020, China cut access to the Philippines' Thitu Island with hundreds of armed vessels to prevent upgrading of the island's runway. Then in 2021, China empowered its militia to open fire on any foreign ship in the South China Sea as it saw fit. Beijing also sent in more than 200 so-called "fishing boats" to ostensibly seek shelter at the disputed Whitsun Reef; it was in fact a display of ownership.

No surprise that Duterte cut his losses and turned away from China 2 years ago when it became obvious his pro-Beijing posture had yielded nothing. He then revived his sometimes testy relationship with the US, a treaty ally for more than half a century.