Off-target economic forecasts point to group-think

SPEAKING to the Institute for Government on Jan 5, Andy Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England, admitted that economic forecasting was in crisis. He called the failure to predict the 2008 financial crisis a "Michael Fish" moment, referring to the 1987 instance when BBC weather forecaster Michael Fish famously declared that a hurricane would not hit Britain. It hit the next day, Oct 19, and closed the city.

Before the UK-EU referendum last June, economists predicted a sharp downturn in the second half of 2016, following a vote for Brexit.

Instead, the economy remained buoyant, possibly a timing error. Computer screens and silicon chips have replaced crystal balls and tea leaves, but something is clearly wrong with economic forecasting.