The Fed could trigger a recession by going too far to raise interest rates

[NEW YORK] The economist David Rosenberg says it's not just possible, but likely, that the US economy will fall into a recession this year, partly because the Federal Reserve will go too far in raising interest rates to fight inflation, which is at a 40-year high.

Rosenberg, the president, chief economist and strategist of Rosenberg Research in Toronto, admits that he's in the minority among economy-trackers in foreseeing an imminent recession. But he makes a persuasive case that deserves a fair hearing.

He told me on Tuesday: "I have 2,600 clients in 40 countries. I never could claim that I get every call right, but I'm notoriously able to forecast when a storm is coming in." He was early to spot the dot-com bubble that burst in 2000 and the housing bubble that burst in 2008.