Three phases of US politics will shape 2022: Covid-19, elections and China

THE best way to think about US politics in 2022 is to divide the year into thirds: It will start with the unfinished business of 2021, pivot to mid-terms and end with the launch of the next presidential race.

Determining which party emerges dominant in 2024 will depend primarily on their handling of Covid-19, inflation and China. You can almost draw up your own scorecard now.

Unfinished business means making good on President Joe Biden's campaign promises with the passage of his "Build Back Better" proposals to finance healthcare, education and climate programmes. These have been whittled back to secure enough votes in a narrowly divided Congress, but should still deliver US$1.75 trillion in new spending over the next decade.