Tories in pole position with commanding lead

NIGEL Farage announced on Monday that he will not field Brexit Party candidates in any of the 300-plus constituencies which the ruling Conservatives won at the last election. The move could provide a fillip to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's party and a critical question is now, as in 2017, whether the opposition Labour Party can stage a dramatic mid-campaign turnaround in the polls.

The scale of the Tory lead in opinion surveys is indicated by Electoral Calculus (EC), based on a "poll of polls" from Nov 1 to Nov 9, which asserts that there is almost a 70 per cent chance that Mr Johnson's party will win only its second majority government since the early 1990s. Indeed, EC indicates that, on the basis of current polls, the Conservatives are on course for a majority of more than 100 seats, rivalling Margaret Thatcher's triple figure majorities in 1983 and 1987.

Despite the fact that the Conservatives have had a very shaky start to the election campaign this month, EC indicates this has had no discernible effect on the polls, at least to date. Indeed, the party's prospects may be improving. In EC's previous prediction in October, based on surveys from Oct 1 to Oct 25, it forecast a Tory majority of "only" 76 seats which would still be a very healthy majority based on UK elections from 2005 to 2017.