With TPP in doubt, Asia must look to trade deals in its own region

ON Friday, US President Barack Obama notified Congress that the White House would soon be sending a bill to implement the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), a landmark trade deal involving 12 nations, including Singapore. The notification means that the actual TPP legislation can be sent to Congress after 30 days. The signal is clear: Mr Obama is determined to get the TPP passed before his term ends.

But he is swimming against the prevailing political tide. Both US presidential candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have opposed the TPP (although Mrs Clinton supported the deal when she served as Mr Obama's secretary of state). Also-ran candidates, such as Democrat Bernie Sanders and most Republican contenders, oppose the TPP too, as have others ranging from Nobel Laureate and columnist Paul Krugman to the influential Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren plus a range of interest groups, including medical professionals, trade unions and environmentalists.

Given such bipartisan opposition, it seems clear that at least until the US election is over, Mr Obama would face serious hurdles getting the TPP through Congress. The most optimistic scenario is that if the anti-free-trade fever dies down after the US election - a big if - he could seize the so-called lame-duck session of Congress (between the election in November and the presidential inauguration on Jan 20 next year) in which to get the legislation passed.