TPP may lose out in GOP presidential nomination fight

THE Republicans in the United States host their penultimate presidential debate this year on Wednesday with key international business issues, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal, at the fore. Around one year from Election Day, the party's contest is entering a critical phase in the bid to find a credible candidate to beat the de facto Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, next year.

One of the key dynamics that will influence Republican prospects of defeating Mrs Clinton (in the very likely event that she becomes the Democratic standard-bearer now that Vice-President Joe Biden has decided not to enter the race) will be whether, and how quickly, the party can unite around its own nominee given the large amount of contenders. A model here for Republicans is the 2000 election cycle when George W Bush emerged strongly from a wide field of players before defeating Albert Al Gore.

A key headache for the party now, however, is there is no imminent sign yet of one or more credible candidates "breaking out" from the field. The top 10 Republicans who have "qualified" for the Oct 28 Colorado debate are businessman Donald Trump, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson (who is now leading some state polls in the first nominating state of Iowa), governors Chris Christie and John Kasich, Senators Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, and former governor Mike Huckabee. Meanwhile, there will be an "undercard debate" featuring Governor Bobby Jindal, Senator Lindsey Graham, former senator Rick Santorum and former governor George Pataki.