Trump and the Four Policemen of Asia

THE Trump administration has rolled out two new policies for Asia under its recent National Security Strategy (NSS). First, the document formally adopts and activates the Quadrilateral Alliance - call it the Four Policemen of Asia - who would maintain regional stability and is obviously aimed at countering Chinese military and financial hegemony.

The second new policy is the elevation of India in America's national security interests, with a clear mandate for New Delhi to play a leadership role in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Asian Quadrilateral consisting of the US, Japan, India and Australia sounds little like the "Four Policemen" - consisting of the US, Britain, China, and the Soviet Union - that President Franklin D Roosevelt had proposed as a guarantor of global peace in the aftermath of World War II.

The Asian Quadrilateral was announced in November with the unstated - but obvious - objective of counterbalancing growing Chinese assertiveness.

It is noteworthy that not only has the Quadrilateral been enshrined in the NSS, but it has also taken the new entity forward with its affirmation to "increase cooperation" between the four partners.

The two new policies are interlinked. The activation of the Quadrilateral and India's leading role within it may become the centrepieces of an emerging Asian order.

The Trump NSS, released recently, went much further than President Barack Obama's NSS of 2015 which had merely stated that the US was "primed to unlock the potential of its relationship with India", and that the US was aware of the impact of India's potential on the "future of major power relations". The Trump strategy, rooted within traditional Republican approach towards India, has actually recognised India's growing power.

The language of the Trump formulation is much firmer: "We welcome India's emergence as a leading global power and stronger strategic and defence partner." And further, the US will "support its leadership role in Indian Ocean security and throughout the broader region".

The Trump NSS aims to expand US defence and security cooperation with India, whom it designates as "a major defence partner", and to "support India's growing relationships throughout the region".

The US desires to make India bend to its will, and India is appearing to support the US-created order in the Indo-Pacific. But New Delhi values its so-called "strategic autonomy", which implies that India will act freely and not adhere to foreign policy dictated by any external power if such policy harms Indian relations with other countries.

There are at least two areas where India may diverge from the US. First, while India shares the view that Chinese hegemony should be balanced by a coalition of regional powers, both China and India are rapidly improving their economic relations as a means of creating the basis for regional harmony.

MIXED SIGNALS

Second, Indian policymakers are worried about Mr Trump's continuing effort to persuade US Congress to scrap the Iran nuclear deal signed by Mr Obama, and to impose possible new sanctions against Iran, as India is building a seaport in Iran and values it as a source of energy supply.

The Trump administration, however, seems to be distancing itself from the president's tweets about isolating the US. The NSS attaches great importance to selected Asean countries. "Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are growing security and economic partners of the United States", it declares.

The US system of Asian alliances is still strong. But some South-east "allies" do not see themselves exclusively as American partners, and other Asian allies are challenging the US in many ways, demonstrating their ability to conduct their foreign policy with a measure of strategic autonomy.

The US counts the Philippines and Thailand as "important allies and markets for Americans".

But both these countries, as well as Malaysia, are firmly allied to China, which the NSS views with deep suspicion.

The US strategy, nonetheless, proclaims that Asean and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation "remain centrepieces of the Indo-Pacific's regional architecture and platforms for promoting an order based on freedom".

There is, however, no mention of reviving multilateral free trade pacts such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). "We will pursue bilateral trade agreements on a fair and reciprocal basis. We will seek equal and reliable access for American exports. We will work with partners to build a network of states dedicated to free markets and protected from forces that would subvert their sovereignty," the strategy explains, in an obvious reference to controversial Chinese trade practices.

Mr Trump's NSS speaks about the need for US-China cooperation, but it also correctly warns that "China is using economic inducements and penalties, influence operations, and implied military threats to persuade other states to heed its political and security agenda. China's infrastructure investments and trade strategies reinforce its geopolitical aspirations".

While warning of continuing Chinese militarisation of the South China Sea and "rapid military modernisation campaign designed to limit US access to the region", the NSS cautions: "Chinese dominance risks diminishing the sovereignty of many states in the Indo-Pacific", and that many countries "are calling for sustained US leadership in a collective response that upholds a regional order respectful of sovereignty and independence".

MIXED REACTIONS

Not all countries, however, want to see continuing US dominance. The Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Cambodia seek to create a balance of power, to the extent possible, between China and the US, as these countries have received large-scale investment capital from Beijing, which the US has not matched.

The NSS attempts to ease the tensions that the Trump administration has created with both Japan and South Korea, with the president asking them to pay more for their defence. "Our alliance and friendship with South Korea, forged by the trials of history, is stronger than ever. We welcome and support the strong leadership role of our critical ally, Japan," it declares.

The Trump NSS, alas, does not give any signal that the administration will ever return to global free trade. The US has lost an opportunity of creating a new Asian order based on free trade. The president should have reconsidered his decision to scrap the TPP.

His administration's effort to create a new security framework for Asia will be less effective because it is not built on a foundation of a region-wide free trade agreement.