Trump's presence is thwarting rejuvenation of the Republican Party

SO here is the latest bizarre idea that is circulating among the faithful Trumpists who believe that it is only a question of time before the former president returns to power and kicks out of the White House the man who is supposedly pretending to be the winner of the 2020 presidential election.

It goes: Florida resident Donald Trump will run for the House of Representatives in 2022, win a seat, and then be elected by a Republican majority in the chamber as Speaker of the House.

According to the idea being floated by former his political guru, Steve Bannon, House Speaker Trump would then be in a position to mobilise Republican lawmakers to launch impeachment proceedings against current Democratic President Joe Biden, accusing him of "stealing" the 2020 presidential race and then removing the "illegitimate" president from office.

What would happen then is not clear. The Speaker of the House is third in the line of presidential succession, so the plan would also necessitate the removal of Vice-President Kamala Harris, which is a very serious roadblock.

But according to one scenario, the US Supreme Court with its majority of conservative Justices, some of them chosen by President Trump, would be in a position to reinstate Representative Trump as the President of these United States.

Addressing a Republican convention in North Carolina last Saturday, the ex-president called the proposal that he run for the House in 2022 to try to win the Speaker's gavel "interesting".

"That's so interesting," he said. "Yeah, you know, it's very interesting," he added, saying that others had suggested he run for the Senate. "But you know what, your idea might be better. It's very interesting."

It is also a silly and impractical whim that not surprisingly has not gained significant traction.

First, he would have to figure out which district to run in after the House redistricting process is completed. And then assuming that he does find a district where most voters there are his fans, he would have to overcome many legal and technical obstacles.

But talk about crazy ideas. Former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, addressing a group affiliated with the conspiracist QAnon, seemed to suggest that he would support a military coup that would return Mr Trump to power.

When a member of the audience asked Mr Flynn: "I want to know why what happened in Myanmar can't happen here?" the former White House adviser said: "No reason; I mean, it should happen here. No reason. That's right."

(He later insisted that his comments were taken out of context).

'BY AUGUST'

And then there is this: Press reports suggest that Mr Trump has been telling some of his close allies that he expects he will get reinstated as president by August. He has also been predicting that the recounts of the 2020 election results in Arizona, Georgia and other states would prove that he had won the race, and, as he and his supporters have been arguing for months, the presidency was "stolen" from him.

Moreover, the former president seems to believe that these recounts would also show that the Republicans had won the two Senate races in Georgia, and that they therefore should take control of that legislative chamber, where power is now evenly divided between the two political parties, and help President Trump to advance his agenda.

In fact, public opinion polls indicate that the majority of self-identified Republicans have embraced Mr Trump's fabrication that the election was "rigged" and stolen from him; they regard him, and not President Biden, as the legitimate president.

That suggests that for all practical purposes, the former president remains the leader of the Grand Old Party (GOP), and could in theory be nominated as the Republican presidential candidate in 2024.

These views are shared by leading conservative pundits and are being disseminated by Mr Trump's major media megaphone, the FOX-News television network watched by millions of Republicans.

That political reality sends a clear signal to all leading Republican figures, including members of the party's contingency on Capitol Hill, that challenging the former president would result in a political death sentence.

Hence, when Representative Liz Cheney, a Wyoming Republican and daughter of a former powerful vice-president, insisted that she would not support Mr Trump after the Jan 6 riot by his supporters at the Capitol, she was forced out of a leadership position by her colleagues.

That could mean that those Republicans who have been considering running for the presidency in 2024 - a long list that includes Senators Josh Hawley (Missouri), Tom Cotton (Arkansas), Ted Cruz (Texas), Marco Rubio (Florida), former US ambassador to the United Nation, Nicky Haley, and Florida governor Ron DeSantis - are unlikely to announce their candidacies unless Mr Trump decides not to run and, most important, endorses them.

This has been frustrating not only to them, but also to other Republican leaders who recognise that as long as Mr Trump continues to retain the support of the party's electoral base, he would unlikely win key electoral groups, like white suburban voters, in another presidential race.

THEY COULD BEAT HARRIS

At the same time, if the Republicans run with someone like Governor DeSantis or former ambassador Haley at the head of the presidential ticket, the party would have a chance of beating the expected Democratic presidential candidate and the successor to President Biden, Vice-President Kamala Harris, who has yet to widen her support among American voters.

Moreover, with earlier forecasts of a booming American economy under President Biden now seen as too rosy, a Republican Party led by an attractive presidential candidate could win not only the White House, but also gain control of the Senate and the House of Representatives.

But notwithstanding the former president's hold over the Republican electoral base, he is facing widening state and local investigations into his businesses, including the selection of a special grand jury by the Manhattan district attorney, that could keep him busy for several years.

At the same time, Mr Trump has been unable to circulate his message beyond his base to the American public after decisions by Facebook and Twitter to keep the ban against him in place.

Yet the former president's continued political presence makes it difficult for the Republican Party to rejuvenate itself and return to its ideological roots as the proponent of individual rights, economic growth and strong national defence, at a time when the progressive Woke agenda of the Democratic Party, with its emphasis on racial and ethnic politics, has been antagonising many American voters.