Ukraine crisis may be near tipping point

THE leaders of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine will meet in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, on Wednesday to discuss a Ukrainian peace plan being championed by French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The session follows a conference call on Sunday between the four.

Wednesday's meeting comes at a moment of significant escalation in the crisis with some, including Mr Hollande, warning of "total war". While the Merkel-Hollande plan has now been discussed with multiple other world leaders, including on Friday in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin and Monday in Washington with President Barack Obama, there is no clear sign yet of a genuine breakthrough. The peace plan is believed to be based upon last year's Minsk agreement which called for a ceasefire, withdraw of artillery, prisoner exchanges and other concessions that were never fully implemented. It reportedly offers separatists significant autonomy in the areas under their control under a calculation that many rebels might be willing to remain part of a more decentralised country.

The plan also reportedly includes a proposed demilitarised zone of 50-70 kilometres around the present front line. The emphasis on the current front line has alarmed Ukraine which asserts that the demarcation lines from Minsk (which came before recent separatist gains) are the ones that should be respected.