Umno looks set to stay on top of the political heap

MALAYSIAN Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s decision to roll the electoral dice even after repeated opposition warnings about holding the polls during the flood season came as no surprise. He was under significant political pressure from leaders of his own party Umno, and probably judged it in the interests of both his party and himself to dissolve parliament and pave the way for the country’s 15th general election, probably in mid-November.

Indeed, Umno, the dominant partner in the current coalition government, is so confident of its chances that it has left the budget process hanging, certain that it will again lead the next ruling coalition and so be able to pick up where it left off. And Umno has good reasons for its optimism. The Anwar Ibrahim-Mahathir Mohamad-led coalition that took office in 2018 has splintered. Mahathir, 97, the eminence grise of the anti-Umno movement, is no longer keen on a leadership role. Anwar, 75, has not displayed the verve of yesteryears. More importantly, those who voted for change four years ago were outraged by the 1MDB financial scandal, which claimed the scalp of former prime minister Najib Razak, now serving a 12-year jail sentence. Their anger has probably dissipated. As well, voters would not have forgotten how the coalition came unstuck only two years after winning office, and may not be enthusiastic about voting again for the same old faces.

To be sure, Umno has its own problems. The party’s president, Zahid Hamidi, still faces 47 criminal charges in an ongoing trial scheduled to end in November. These comprise 12 charges of criminal breach of trust in relation to more than RM31 million (S$9.4 million) in funds of a charitable foundation, 27 counts of money laundering, and eight counts of bribery involving RM21.25 million. Then there is the case of the missing naval vessels. A previous Umno-led coalition paid RM6 billion for six naval ships that remain undelivered well past the deadline. It remains to be seen if the opposition can use these issues to galvanise disaffected voters to turn up on polling day.