UMNO's comeback brings more flux to Malaysia's politics

"THIS is quite a game, politics," as they say. The convincing comeback of Malaysia's scandal-hit Barisan Nasional (BN) party into power, more recently in last week's Johor state election, further attests to that. Low voter turnout notwithstanding, BN's resounding electoral victory in Malaysia's southern state follows the coalition's triumph at the ballot box in the Melaka state election last November. Fresh from the win, the key players in BN's dominant component party United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), namely its president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and still-influential politician former Prime Minister Najib Razak, must be emboldened to push for an early election. Both men face a slew of graft charges while Najib has already been convicted in one case involving the money-laundering scandal of state-backed investment firm 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). They have claimed no wrongdoing. This latest development puts the state of play in Malaysia's political dynamics in yet another state of flux given expectations that the 15th General Election may be called this year, ahead of July 2023 when the parliamentary term ends. The stakes are high. Since its historic defeat in May 2018 which had ended BN's six-decade rule as the party was rocked by allegations of corruption and cronyism, BN appears to have regained its clout in a calculated manner. Since the opposition alliance Pakatan Harapan (PH) led by Mahathir Mohamad defeated the BN coalition four years ago, there has nary been a dull moment. The initial euphoria over the promise of change and reforms was quickly overtaken by disenchantment amid a slowing economy, lethargic pace of democratic reforms and political infighting in the PH coalition. In 2020, even as the pandemic reared its ugly head, Malaysia was plunged into a deep political crisis;the country has seen a change of leadership three times since. BN's head honchos have steadily managed to tap into the upheaval amid rising discontent among Malaysians. The current Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who is Umno's vice-president, has only held the top job since August last year. He is now facing calls to dissolve Parliament for a snap national polls, which he appears to be resisting as he risks losing his position as the country's premier. This (yet another) looming political crisis is unfolding amid an economic rebound as businesses and borders reopen in the country following a painful and protracted shutdown owing to the pandemic. Rising commodity prices from oil to palm oil are also helping boost the recovery of the export-oriented economy. Inflationary pressures and tightening monetary policies worldwide however pose headwinds for the recovery narrative. Beyond these near-term concerns, it also bears watching how the return of BN would reset the tone of Malaysian politics, and the future of the country's reforms and democracy.