US policy predictions involve serious stakes

IMAGINE yourself as a regular commentator on public affairs - maybe a paid pundit, maybe a supposed expert in some area, maybe just an opinionated billionaire. You weigh in on a major policy initiative that's about to happen, making strong predictions of disaster. The Obama stimulus, you declare, will cause soaring interest rates; the Fed's bond purchases will "debase the dollar" and cause high inflation; the Affordable Care Act will collapse in a vicious circle of declining enrolment and surging costs.

But nothing you predicted actually comes to pass. What do you do?

You might admit that you were wrong, and try to figure out why. But almost nobody does that; we live in an age of unacknowledged error.