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Whatever Philippines' poll result, its economy will remain robust

Despite decades of economic structural reforms, much work is still needed especially in infrastructure to provide the foundation for strong and sustained growth.

Published Thu, May 5, 2016 · 09:50 PM
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DOES the result of the Philippine presidential election matter? Startling as this rhetorical question may seem as the country waits in anticipation for its 16th presidential election, my personal view is that no matter who wins the election, the Philippine economy will continue to grow strongly.

The Philippines' strong and resilient economic growth story has persisted since even before the last six years under President Benigno Aquino, and the economic fundamentals remain well-entrenched. The economy will remain robust. For the past 12 years, the Philippine economy has been growing consistently at an average of close to 6 per cent, except in 2009 when it slowed to 1.1 per cent as the world went into recession.

There are four key pillars that have supported this stellar economic growth: fiscal policy, monetary policy, domestic consumption and growing investments. In terms of fiscal policy, over the last 15 years the Philippines has had a consistent policy of fiscal consolidation. Its fiscal position has been improving continuously, with public debt to GDP (gross domestic product) having gone down from a high of over 90 per cent to below 50 per cent. In 13 out of 15 years, its fiscal deficit has also consistently been 4 per cent or less of GDP, a remarkable achievement for an emerging-market economy.

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