Why a chill is creeping into China-UK ties

UK FOREIGN Secretary Dominic Raab said at the weekend that UK-China ties cannot return to "business as usual" post-coronavirus. His warning underlines that it is not just relations between Washington and Beijing that have been strained by the pandemic, and that this could have major international relations implications to come.

Relations between the United Kingdom and China had, even before the Covid-19 outbreak, cooled last year, following the political unrest in Hong Kong. Boris Johnson, who Mr Raab is standing in for at the moment as the prime minister recuperates from his bout of the virus, squarely defended the protesters at the time, much to Beijing's chagrin.

Last year too, a trip by-then Chancellor Phillip Hammond to China was cancelled after a speech by then-Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson was perceived by Chinese officials as sabre-rattling. Mr Williamson asserted that London could deploy an aircraft carrier in the Pacific for its first operational cruise in 2021. This was very sensitive for Beijing, in part because it is involved in disputes with its neighbours over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

While there has been no public confirmation of the London-Beijing spat, the Chinese ambassador reportedly raised his concerns with the UK Foreign Office. And the government was criticised for its mixed messages over whether Beijing is an economic partner or military threat.

Yet, this cooling may now turn into a deep freeze. It is not just Mr Raab in the UK government who has publicly cast doubt on China's information about the virus.

On March 29, Michael Gove, the UK Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and a key member of the Cabinet, expressed scepticism about China's official virus statistics. He asserted that "the first case of coronavirus in China was established in December of last year, but it was also the case that some of the reporting from China was not clear about the scale, the nature and the infectiousness of this".

Meanwhile, a report by the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee last month accused the Chinese government of spreading disinformation. It made the remarkable claim that this "has already cost lives" and urged the UK government "to issue clear and transparent messages at home to confront and rebut disinformation".

And it is not just the coronavirus issue that Beijing is currently under attack for in London. Several Conservative MPs, including House of Commons Foreign Committee Chairman Tom Tugendhat, are urging Mr Johnson's government to review its decision to allow Chinese-headquartered firm Huawei to have a roll-out of the nation's 5G network.

In this context of growing anti-China sentiment, there is now a real possibility that bilateral relations could become as frosty as in the period after then-Prime Minister David Cameron offended Beijing by meeting with the Dalai Lama in 2012. London quickly reversed tack after this and the Conservative governments of both a chastened Mr Cameron and Theresa May subsequently ratcheted down - in public at least - human-rights concerns about China, with relations entering what was called a "golden era" after President Xi Jinping's UK visit in 2015.

This underlines that, for all the government's coronavirus rhetoric against Beijing, a similar U-turn in the future cannot be ruled out either. For, while there is growing international concern about China's actions over the pandemic, London will soon have an acute post-Brexit dependence on intensifying economic ties with fast-growing economies in Asia and beyond, including Beijing.

Indeed, even before Brexit, economics had assumed higher importance in bilateral relations, with London putting ever greater emphasis on consolidating ties with Beijing. The United Kingdom already receives the largest amount of Chinese foreign direct investment of any EU country, and is one of Beijing's top three trade partners in Europe. Meanwhile, China is the UK's second largest non-EU trade partner.

ASPIRATIONS FOR DEEPER TIES

The UK has deep aspirations to deepen economic ties with China, including in the areas of infrastructure and green finance and technological innovation. Take the example of UK energy and technology businesses, which are eager to gain market opportunities in the massive Chinese market, and where the United Kingdom is well positioned as a leader in key sub-sectors, including energy-management systems, offshore wind and tackling air pollution.

The potential opening here is huge, given that China faces serious air and water pollution, and is more reliant on imports of oil than the United States. Moreover, Beijing is committed to moving its economy away from energy-intensive, inefficient industries towards cleaner energy, and greater energy independence.

By putting the interests of commerce so prominently in the bilateral relationship, London has received significant criticism in the period after 2013. For instance, an unnamed senior Obama administration official was widely quoted in 2015 to be "wary about a trend toward constant accommodation of Beijing, which is not the best way to engage a rising power".

Moreover, the Trump team in Washington has not been impressed by Mr Johnson's decision on Huawei and what it perceives as the UK's semi-endorsement of Beijing's huge US$1 trillion Belt and Road infrastructure project. After Italy became the first G7 nation to endorse the plan in March 2019, China is now looking for other key nations to do so, and former Chancellor Hammond attended last April's Belt and Road Summit in Beijing.

Yet, while the UK's China stance has certainly not been without controversy, including with former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who raised human rights issues with Mr Xi in 2015 in London, Conservative ministers have generally perceived in the last few years that enhancing ties with Beijing is in the UK national interest. They figure that Mr Xi could be in power well for much (if not all) of the next decade, and it is widely viewed that there is an opportunity to develop a relationship that could make a significant contribution to UK prosperity for a generation to come.

This is why it would be such a potentially important break in UK policy if the Johnson government moves to a much harder-line stance. With Brexit on the horizon, London faces a difficult balancing act in the months to come, as it seeks to reconcile its future economic needs with growing concerns over what it perceives as China's coronavirus cover-up.