Why state of Europe's union is stronger

EUROPEAN Commission president Ursula von der Leyen gives her annual 'state-of-the-union' address on Wednesday amid a 'crossroads' moment for the continent in the wake of the pandemic.

Almost two years into her presidency, with the worst of the coronavirus crisis potentially over, Brussels faces a tipping point between the challenges that have confronted it for the last several years and a brighter, new dawn. For if fortune favours the EU-27, there may now be a potentially historic 'window of opportunity' for the bloc to build back better.

When Mrs von der Leyen took office in December 2019, she could not have foreseen that the pandemic would be the decisive challenge of her first two years. Yet it has dominated the landscape, and the bungled initial EU roll-out of vaccines led to calls for her resignation earlier this year.

Until a few months ago, the continent was lagging behind countries including the United States and United Kingdom on the distribution of vaccines. Yet, following initial mis-steps, the Brussels-based club has enhanced its strategy on procurement and last week the EU announced that 70 per cent of adults had been double vaccinated.

Beyond the healthcare emergency, the pandemic has brought about a crisis-type environment that the EU has sometimes found most congenial, in the past, to enable political and economic business to progress. Take the example of some of the big achievements so far by Brussels under Mrs von der Leyen's presidency.

Last December the UK and EU-27 agreed to a Brexit trade and cooperation deal with UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. While tensions still exist with London, especially over the Northern Ireland Protocol, there is now a potentially workable framework between the parties to try to build a new phase of UK-EU partnership in the years to come.

Moreover, Mrs von der Leyen played a key role in summer 2019, alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, in persuading squabbling fellow EU leaders to agree to give the bloc, for the first time in its history, debt-raising powers to finance a 750 billion euros (S$1.19 trillion) post-coronavirus recovery plan.

The potential 'window of opportunity' to push the debt-financed recovery package through last year reflects not just the economic and political stresses that the coronavirus has brought to the continent, the worst economic shock for decades, but also Brexit. This is because the UK would have been sceptical of key elements of the agenda Mrs von der Leyen is now pushing, including a stronger EU defence union.

VISION FOR EU POST-PANDEMIC

In her big speech this week, the EC president will outline her vision for the EU post-pandemic. In essence, this will therefore be a domestic manifesto for economic recovery, including through the EU 'Green New Deal', at home, while enhancing Europe's security and foreign relations, abroad.

Mrs Von der Leyen believes that it is critical for the more than 400 million population bloc to be ambitious and seize the initiative in coming years. The alternative, in her view, is further drift that has characterised EU affairs for so long.

For as well as opportunities on the horizon, there is also a potentially gathering storm too, including from growing populism. While euroscepticism is sometimes seen as a western European problem because of Brexit, the populist surge in Eastern Europe, especially Hungary and Poland, is a major thorn in the side of Brussels too.

Beyond Brexit, the storm clouds highlight the fragility of the political situation across the continent. In recent years, there has been a huge growth of domestic and external challenges that may be without precedent in the post-war era.

On the domestic front, there has been a significant rise of anti-EU, nationalist sentiment across the continent which has seen populist arguments coming to the fore as well as the perceived erosion of the fundamental values of liberal democracy. While Brexit exemplifies this, the problem is by no means limited to the UK. Indeed, Mr Macron admitted in 2018 that even France, one of the two traditional motors of EU integration alongside Germany, would probably vote to leave the EU if presented with a similar choice to the UK's 2016 referendum.

Mrs Von der Leyen is also aware that Brussels has been very dependent in recent years on the political prowess of Mr Macron and Mrs Merkel. Yet, the latter will be out of office in weeks, and Mr Macron faces a highly uncertain election outlook next year. In that ballot, far-right National Front Leader Marine Le Pen (who finished second behind Mr Macron last time around) will be a strong contender again.

Since his remarkable rise to power, Mr Macron has emerged as a staunch defender of the Brussels-based club, and one the most authoritative proponents of the liberal international order. Indeed, the young French president alongside other European figures like far-right Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban currently embodies perhaps more than any other democratic leaders the present 'battle' in international relations between an apparently rising populist, nationalist tide, and the liberal centre ground.

Mr Macron's victory in 2017 against Ms Le Pen was so striking as it defied the march of populism in numerous countries which had seen parties of the left and centre-ground sometimes taking a political battering. Mr Macron's win then appeared to represent at least a partial turnaround in fortunes for centre-ground politics after several setbacks, including the Brexit referendum, but he himself could yet become France's third consecutive president not to be re-elected.

On the international front is a new geopolitical reality from an increasingly assertive Russia, instability in the Middle East which has driven the migration problems impacting Europe, and uncertainty from Washington following Donald Trump's presidency, and also the uncertainty from the Biden administration after the precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan.

RELATIONSHIPS

One of the distinctive ways that Mrs von der Leyen has responded to this troubled environment is to double down on relationships with key emerging market powers, especially Africa which has become a key foreign policy priority for her. However, beyond that continent, the Asian giants of India and China are also key with Brussels engaging new trade and investment deals with both.

Taken together, Mrs von der Leyen's speech will make clear that decisions this year and next will help define the EU's longer-term political and economic character in the face of multiple challenges and opportunities. With storm clouds potentially gathering again, she is right to argue that now is the time for the continent to forge a new, stronger path into the 2020s.

• The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics