Why the Asia-Pacific is key to Biden's presidency

US President Joe Biden's laser-like focus on domestic policy yielded his first big win last week with a US$1.9 trillion pandemic stimulus bill, yet his presidency could yet be remembered more for its foreign policy legacy, especially in the Asia-Pacific.

For now, however, Mr Biden's super priority is home affairs and on Thursday he gave his first prime time television address to the nation. With the pandemic potentially now past its peak in the United States, the president indicated his ambition that July 4 will see the nation's "independence" from the more than year-long health emergency following the ongoing mass vaccination roll-out.

Another reason why Mr Biden's first 100 days is so focused on domestic policy also reflects his awareness that there may only be a narrow "window of opportunity" to secure his home agenda. This is because the Democrats may lose a significant number of seats in Congress in next year's mid-term elections after which it is possible he could face hostile Republican majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives.

Take the example of the House where since 1900, there have been only three mid-term elections - 1934, 1998, and 2002 - in which the incumbent president's party didn't lose seats. Moreover, in the post-war era, there has been an average net loss of 26 House seats for the-then president's party.

If this scenario does unfold in 2022, it will repeat recent history which has seen, from the vantage point of domestic policy, that the incumbent's first two years are the most productive. It is during this initial period in the White House that presidents usually succeed in enacting core priorities as Donald Trump did, for instance with his 2017 tax cut package.

This was also true for Barack Obama, George W Bush, and Bill Clinton, too. Mr Clinton for instance secured a 1993 deficit reduction plan and passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement; Mr Bush had his 2001 tax cuts, while Mr Obama's wins included a big 2009 stimulus package and healthcare reform act.

So this is why Mr Biden is zeroing in now on rejuvenating, post-pandemic, the US economy, society, and polity. Building from the coronavirus crisis stimulus victory this week, he has other priority legislation to secure in coming months, plus the wider objective of bringing greater reconciliation to the US body politic after the polarisation of Mr Trump's presidency.

MOMENTUM ISSUE

To be sure, it is plausible that Mr Biden may achieve further domestic policy success beyond his first two years in office. However, other recent presidents have found it difficult to acquire momentum in this area after this point.

In part, this is because they have held a weaker position in Congress over time. For instance, both Mr Clinton in 1994 and Mr Obama in 2010 saw - two years into their presidencies - striking gains by the Republicans who picked up the House in both these mid-term ballots from Democrats, and also the Senate in 1994.

Over time, Mr Biden like these other recent presidents is therefore increasingly turning to foreign policy. Not only does he have a packed agenda on this front, but he is also perhaps the most experienced and knowledgeable new president on international affairs in modern US history, and wants this to be a key part of his legacy.

Of course, experience does not equal success, but it should allow Mr Biden to "hit-the-ground-running" which could be critical. For there are a number of burning issues that require attention in the next four years, especially in the Asia-Pacific.

Mr Biden is not alone in wanting foreign policy initiatives to be a critical part of their legacy. For instance, Richard Nixon scored a string of international successes in his second two years of office from 1971 to 1973. This included his landmark meeting with former chairman Mao Zedong in China in February 1972 before signing two nuclear agreements with Moscow to limit nuclear weapons. More recently, former president Bush sought to spread his self-proclaimed freedom agenda after the 2001 terrorist attacks, not least with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

For President Biden, key opportunities on the foreign policy front include rebuilding US alliances after the Trump presidency. From Europe to the Asia-Pacific, longstanding allies emerged bruised from the last four years and are looking to the president to restore a more stable, predictable style of US leadership again in the face of significant challenges to the international order from states such as China and Russia.

It is the vast Asia-Pacific geography that will probably be the critical theatre that will consume much of Mr Biden's time. It is for this reason that he met last Friday, virtually, with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue "Quad" of Australian, Indian and Japanese Prime Ministers Scott Morrison, Narendra Modi and Yoshihide Suga respectively. One of the outputs of that session is a new "soft power" campaign Washington, Tokyo, Canberra and New Delhi are working on to distribute Covid-19 vaccines in the Asia-Pacific to counter the influence of China.

This is only the first initiative the Biden team is planning for the region after the perceived under-ambition of the Trump team here. President Donald Trump rolled back from the Obama administration's commitment to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) with Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.

It instead sought bilateral trade deals in the region with CPTPP signatories, including Japan, but this agenda had only very limited success. This created a vacuum of US power in the region that China has helped fill with its ambitious Belt and Road scheme, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement signed last year.

ASIA-PACIFIC PRE-EMINENCE

Given the pre-eminence of the Asia-Pacific in Mr Biden's foreign policy, it is no coincidence that the first face-to-face meetings of new Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin are in the region. Following initial meetings with counterparts in Japan this week, they move to South Korea. To cap off this shuttle diplomacy, Mr Austin then travels to India, while Mr Blinken will meet key Chinese officials, including his counterpart Wang Yi.

Taken together, this is why Mr Biden is increasingly likely to turn to the world stage, particularly the Asia-Pacific, as his presidency advances. Not only is the steam likely to be lost from his domestic agenda, but there are also significant potential foreign policy prizes on the horizon before 2025.

• The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics