Why the West's reset is not yet complete

THE West's rejuvenation as a political and economic force was one of the key topics of discussion at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), European Council and G7 summits last week, a big change from the Trump era.

While United States President Joe Biden is widely criticised, his presidency has helped rebuild and renew the transatlantic and wider Western alliance - plus highlight the areas in which international cooperation is now most urgently needed.

With the unexpectedly unified Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the last few weeks, there is renewed confidence among US allies just over a year since Biden was sworn in as president. This represents a reversal of the years from 2017 to 2021 when a dominant narrative was uncertainty about the enduring purpose of the West.

Of course, key questions about the future of the West pre-date Donald Trump's election as US president. Moreover, it is not just Trump who highlighted problems with these key alliances as shown by the United Kingdom's vote in 2016 to leave the European Union (EU).

Yet, there is no question that Trump's presidency intensified questions about the future of the West. Hence, the reason why there has been such urgency for transatlantic partners in the last year to develop a strategy for a new era of great power competition.

More needs to be done

Yet, the rejuvenation of the West as the world's leading political and economic force is far from complete, even now. There is significantly more that's needed to accomplish Biden's goal of seeing the Western community re-unify against what he perceives as common challenges from not just Russia, but also China.

Biden emphasised this message at every opportunity last week and took a series of key steps that have been warmly welcomed by allies. Perhaps the main headline-grabber was his announcement that the US will boost US gas supplies to Europe to reduce dependence on Russia.

Under the deal announced on Friday (Mar 25), Biden promised to deliver in 2022 at least 15 billion cubic metres more liquid natural gas to Europe than under previous plans, with increased gas supplies in 2023 too.

This will go a significant way to replace the liquid natural gas ( LNG) supply Europe currently receives from Russia. And the US measure will be especially appreciated in EU nations like Germany and Italy which are heavily reliant on Russian supply that currently accounts for 40 per cent of the EU's gas needs and 25 per cent of its oil requirements, albeit with significant differences between countries.

US liquid natural gas plants are currently producing at full capacity already, and the exports will therefore likely come from supply previously destined for other parts of the world. Market incentives will encourage this too as EU gas prices have in recent months generally been the highest in the world.

Yet, as important as the last few days have been, there are still several steps that need to be taken for the West to be well and truly 'back' in the way that Biden wants.

One necessary move is for all key parties, including the EU, Canada and Japan, to acknowledge that, after the last half decade, it may not be possible for the old liberal order to be brought back lock, stock and barrel. Desirable as that may still be for many, it is now abundantly clear that going back to the full panoply of the old rules-based international order may not be realistic.

This is not least because significant portions of populaces in Western societies remain supportive of political disruptors such as Donald Trump with their populist agendas. Indeed, it is plausible that the former president may yet win the Republican nomination in 2024.

Within the Western bloc, challenges are rife, including international trade and wider economic tensions. Recent years have seen Japan imposing tariffs on South Korea, while Germany, France and Brussels have disagreed with Eastern neighbours, including power broker Poland, over the rule of law and democratic backsliding.

Biden's presidency is the moment to try to address these issues. And it is also the right time too, to start exploring what a new Western-led approach to global governance looks like.

A prerequisite for enabling these goals is concentrating on the big strategic questions facing the West. These are multiple going beyond Ukraine, and they won't be resolved in the series of summits last week.

For one, the EU and the UK need to build from the 2021 Brexit trade deal to address festering issues like the Northern Ireland protocol, and look into broader security and defence cooperation which has been shown to be so important by Ukraine.

A second is the need for much of the wider transatlantic West, from Eastern Europe to the Americas, to agree that there is a range of economic, not just military, challenges that are better met together.

Future of international trade

Other issues include the future of international trade, a quarter of a century after the creation of the World Trade Organization. This system is creaking under the strain of recent sanctions imposed across the globe.

What is now needed is a multi-year dialogue under Biden's presidency, with forums such as Nato and the G7, imperfect as they are, stepping up to the plate. Nato, for instance, has much continuing relevance with a membership of countries with a collective population of around 1 billion. It remains one of the world's most successful-ever military organisations, helping underpin the longest period of sustained peace in the West's modern history.

Meanwhile, the G7 which holds its leadership meeting in Germany in June will be another key forum to shape the new West. The G7 has already been at the centre of the transatlantic community's approach to economic sanctions, post-Ukraine, with more measures possible in April.

Some sceptics will say that nothing big will change anytime soon. Yet this may be too pessimistic.

At this latest moment of geopolitical and economic crisis post-Ukraine invasion, 2022 might well be a decisive year to build the foundations of a renewed West, a project which would be galvanised if Biden wins re-election in 2024.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics