Will America's decline be graceful?

WHOEVER wins on Nov 3, America's relative decline compared with the rest of the world - and by that I mean China and Asia - is set to continue. Since President Ronald Reagan's tax cuts, the US has chosen to be a low tax economy with a low standard of public goods. To restore infrastructure, health facilities and education will require massive public investment. In view of America's economic strains, there is little chance of realising this.

The last period of sustained investment in this field was under President Dwight Eisenhower. Donald Trump's infrastructure plans - to which I attached great importance in July 2016, reviewing what I considered a likely victory - were stillborn.

In view of the separation of powers in the constitution, radical reform by the executive requires a depression or a war. Franklin Roosevelt had both, plus a 13-year presidency. Congressional control and an atmosphere of urgency are essential. Lyndon Johnson's five White House years in the 1960s were the last period of reform with his civil rights and Great Society programmes as well as relaxed immigration rules. Subsequent Republican domination (Jimmy Carter's single term notwithstanding) watered down the Great Society. Although making progress on the civil rights front, Bill Clinton extended the Republicans' liberalising agenda by deregulating the financial sector and truncating the welfare state. Balanced budgets were a rarity. The 2008 financial crisis led to no radical change. The taxpayer paid for the default of Wall Street. Quantitative easing gave money to asset owners who profited from the largesse, widening economic inequality - especially of wealth.