The winner of the next India GE may be the one who finds satraps' favour

Bombay

ELECTIONS to state assemblies are a pointer to the drift of national politics. If last year, the drubbing the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) faced in assembly elections to Bihar and Delhi pointed to its dim future at the national level, the recent elections to four major states have given it a new lease of life. The new optimism has to be tempered with caution as there are three years before the next general election in 2019. Moreover, important elections to state assemblies taking place in 2017 and 2018, closer to the general election, will give a better indication of the way the wind is blowing.

There were surprises in each of the four major states, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal and Assam that went to the polls. In Tamil Nadu, J Jayalalithaa, amma or mother to her followers, beat her main rival, the DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), narrowly. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee won a two-thirds majority. Kerala followed its usual trend of alternating power between the Congress-led UDF (United Democratic Front) and the Communist-led LDF (Left Democratic Front) by voting in the communists after five years of UDF rule. Assam saw the BJP-led coalition coming to power for the first time in the north-east.