Worker shortage to prolong decline in US oil production

THE rig count has rebounded from the lows seen in late May, a small indication that oil companies in the US could begin drilling anew. Shale drilling is a short-cycle prospect, requiring only a few weeks to drill and bring a well online. Because of this, the collective US shale industry has been likened to the new "swing producer": low oil prices force quick cutbacks but higher prices trigger new supplies. In essence, shale could balance the market in the way Opec (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) used to.

While that notion was always a bit simplistic, one reason that US shale production won't necessarily spring into action in short order is because the people and equipment that were sidelined over the past two years can't come back at a moment's notice.

Oilfield service companies have gutted their payrolls and warm or cold stacked rigs and equipment (temporarily or more permanently idling rigs). An estimated 350,000 workers have been laid off in the oil industry around the world, and the rig count in the US is a tiny fraction of what it was two years ago.