The coming US recession will be self-inflicted

THE US economy is plodding towards a recession, a result of the Trump administration’s pursuit of three contractionary policies in tandem: reducing the size of the federal government, instituting broad tariffs and deporting workers. Unless these policies that shrink the economy are abandoned, a recession is all but guaranteed.

Recessions happen. We have suffered 13 since World War II. They all hit familiar beats. Jobs will be eliminated, hiring will slow and unemployment will rise. Also, businesses will shutter, workers will give up on the labour market and wage growth will be anaemic. And when a recovery begins, it can take years for the economy to fully heal.

Still, each recession is unique. The constant evolution of the economy means that the conditions surrounding a recession and recovery are never identical. With that in mind, it is worth taking stock of what will make the coming downturn different.