Continuity, change, and a gamble
As different countries go to the polls this year, businesses and investors wait to see if the election results will lead to policy shifts
THIS year of many elections comes in tandem with a time of global tumult, and poll results will be consequential. Different personalities and parties jostle for attention and support, like jugglers performing during an earthquake. But headlines aside, there are overarching questions about the balance between continuity and change that matter to business.
Generally, incumbents tend to promise more of the same, while opponents call for new directions. For businesses and especially foreign investors, many place a premium on stability. The risks from sudden and adverse political change are real and yet they do not have a vote. How should they interpret the considerable range of outcomes?
A spectrum of outcomes
The election that warrants the most attention is that for the American presidency, coming in November. This is guaranteed to be a heated contest, notwithstanding the advanced years of the candidates. There is a stark choice with high stakes, especially after Donald Trump’s conviction in court.
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