Dynastic clashes in fragile states

THE dispatch of former Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte to the Hague to face an International Criminal Court trial has ramifications beyond a dynastic clash between the Marcos and the Dutertes. The integrity of the country could be at stake. The event should be seen in the context of attitudes of Catholic elites in the north towards the heterogeneous south where separatist sentiment seems alive and well.

Politics in the southern province of Mindanao, where Duterte comes from, has been described as a “mosaic of interconnected disputes” in a research paper. This island is home to 93 per cent of Filipino Muslims. They identify as Bangsamoro, and they view their history as resistance to Spanish and American colonisers and their subsequent marginalisation. In 2017, underlying tensions erupted with the capture of the city of Marawi by Islamic militants.

Last year, Duterte himself pushed the idea of a separate Mindanao nation. He drew a parallel with the independence of Timor Leste and how a political divorce could be achieved peacefully using UN mechanisms. It should be noted that his supporters in Mindanao and parts of the Visayas are diehards. His clansmen have a tight grip on the politics of the region. His son, Paolo Duterte, the Davao congressman, seems keen to do battle with northerners, whom he thinks are out to get his sister and his father. The Dutertes also enjoy considerable support within the ranks of the national police and the armed forces, not least because some of them were complicit in the killing spree that epitomised the ex-president’s edition of the country’s war on drugs.

Of course, others saw crass motives in Duterte’s independence push when it was aired early last year. It was speculated that his proposal was rooted in the dynamics of the then widening split between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Vice-President Sara Duterte and as a way to avoid an ICC trial. The situation is now far more serious. Vice-President Duterte is facing trial in the Philippines Senate after being impeached on Feb 5 for making threats to ranking officials including the president, and of conduct unbecoming of a vice-president. The ex-president is in custody.

And just now, Manila is about to step up its territorial dispute with another case against China, this time over environmental damage in its waters in the South China Sea. Manila accuses Beijing of engaging in activities such as harvesting giant clams, dredging, and constructing artificial islands which, Manila claims, have done terrible damage to coral reefs and marine biodiversity in its Exclusive Economic Zone. Frequently cited along with the intended suit is a 2023 report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies which styles itself as an independent Washington-based think tank. The report shows China’s island building projects buried over 1,861 hectares of coral reefs in the South China Sea, inflicting massive ecological and economic damage.

It requires no great expertise on geopolitics to realise that this confluence of events can play into the hands of an adversary. As a countermove in the regional chessboard, Mindanao may well become a target for subversion. All post-colonial states are, by their very nature, fragile. Disparate regions were yoked together to serve imperial interests. It won’t take a lot of resources to stoke up regional resentment even further and amplify demands for a breakup of the country. The players in this drama may make strange bedfellows, but in a common cause they might yet unite.