EU enlargement could see much bigger bloc

THE eyes of much of Europe are, squarely, on next year’s key European Parliament elections. Yet, an increasing number of key European Union (EU) officials, including EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are looking further ahead to the Europe of the 2030s, by which time the bloc could have grown to over 30 members.

For some historians, the bloc’s biggest achievement in recent decades has been various waves of enlargement. It is no coincidence therefore that von der Leyen visited the Western Balkans in recent days where no less than six states are aspiring to EU membership – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. This showcases how the bloc could grow to more than 30 members in the 2030s with not just the Western Balkan states under consideration for accession, but others too, including Ukraine, Moldova and Turkey.

The European integration process began in the 1950s, with six founding members, and the bloc has steadily expanded, Brexit aside, since. This includes the accession in 2004 of new members from formerly communist Central and Eastern Europe (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia), plus Mediterranean countries (Malta and Cyprus).

This huge enlargement has had many successes, including powering reform in Central and Eastern Europe. For instance, the region’s most powerful state, Poland, has increased its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita almost threefold since joining the EU.

In the period since, however, there has been significant “enlargement fatigue”. This has meant that the accession process for Turkey and the Western Balkan countries has been much more challenging than for the various Central and East European countries prior to 2004.

Yet, the stalled process of recent years has now been rejuvenated. One of the fundamental questions that the bloc must decide therefore is whether it’s serious about another “big bang” enlargement, as in 2004. A key EU update report this week will be published on the progress of aspirant states in meeting accession targets, with a decision on formal negotiations expected as soon as next month.

These enlargement questions are huge, and answers are needed from key existing member states to move forward. Otherwise negotiations could be opened with Ukraine, but then driven on a long, slow road to potential accession as has been the case with Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey. Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron has already warned that it could take several decades for Ukraine to become a full EU member.

Part of the reason these questions are so difficult is that growing the bloc has key implications for day-to-day decision-making, rules and procedures. In addition, the nature of the bloc will also change significantly, with the GDP per capita of potential accession states in the Western Balkans, for instance, below the EU average.

This will have consequences for EU’s cohesion policy that helps poorer regions catch up with richer ones, and which now accounts for about one-third of the overall EU Budget. Take the example of Ukraine which, according to a leaked internal EU document recently, could get up to 61 billion euros (S$88.4 billion) in cohesion money over seven years, post-accession. Even if cohesion budgets grow, this would leave less money for other members.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, some existing EU members have expressed concern about moving too fast, and too far, on enlargement. It is not just decision-making – given a member’s right to veto – which will be challenging going forward, but also budgets, the number of jobs that countries could lose in the Commission, and/ or the number of seats that nations would have to give up in the EU parliament.

It is for these reasons that key countries like Germany and France are already looking at a detailed roadmap of potential future options. Germany, for instance, has suggested giving EU candidate countries some early benefits, before full membership, including observer status at leadership summits.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock asserts that this “integration-before-membership” approach will help provide positive incentives for candidate states. Moreover, there could also be potential political checks and balances for any country that reversed required reforms.

France has also contributed to this debate, including via proposals for a “multi-speed” bloc. One idea here emerged in September from a Franco-German working group, the General Affairs Council (GAC), set up by German Minister of State Anna Luhrmann and French counterpart Laurence Boone.

What that working group has proposed is an inner core of select EU states such as Germany and France that are prepared to go further and faster with integration. Some, but not all, of EU’s 27 members would join this group, as is the case with the current eurozone of 20 EU states.

GAC asserts that these multi-speed options should include the possibility of new arrangements for non-EU members with the bloc that are short of full membership. For instance, there might be “associate members”, including those members of the European single market such as Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein, which are in the four-member European Free Trade Area.

Beyond that, more possibilities for future relationships may exist for other states with the EU, including the new European Political Community (EPC) which Macron is a big advocate of. He believes the EPC could serve as a potential bridge to the EU for candidate nations like Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, Moldova and Turkey, all of which are EPC members. The EPC could start this process by building a consensus between participating states and the EU in areas like energy and defence.

If any of these nations don’t ultimately become full EU members, EPC could also provide a context for greater institutional proximity to the bloc. EPC has already, for instance, given a new context for the United Kingdom to reach new, post-Brexit accords with some EU member states to increase cooperation in what Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called “a new phase of UK-EU cooperation”. The nation has, for instance, pledged to join the Permanent Structured Cooperation, an EU structure for military capability cooperation. Moreover, the UK has also recommenced cooperation with the North Seas Energy Cooperation, a body comprising eight EU members plus Norway with the goal of developing offshore renewable energy.

Taken together, the EU therefore has much to think through about its approach to a new wave of enlargement. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed the context for this process; however, there are challenges remaining in any new “big bang” of members in the coming years.

The writer is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics