Europe must prepare for worst-case scenarios in the remaining decade

RECENT global shocks, including the pandemic and Ukraine war, have had an impact on Europe, perhaps more than any other continent. So much so that the period since 2020 is sometimes seen as a new “time of troubles”.

Yet, potentially, even-bigger political and economic shocks may be on the horizon in the rest of the decade. This view was outlined on Tuesday (Jan 16) by Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, whose country currently holds the European Union’s rotating presidency.

De Croo warned that Donald Trump’s victory on Monday in the Iowa Republican caucuses means that “2024 may bring us ‘America First’ again and, if so, it will be more than ever Europe on its own”. However, he went on to say that Europe “should not fear that prospect. We should embrace it, by putting Europe on a more solid footing – stronger, more sovereign, more self-reliant”. What De Croo highlights here is the need for the EU, and possibly Europe at large, to use 2024 to plan ahead to what could be a further tumultuous period. With specific regard to Trump, there are concerns in Europe that if he gets a second term as United States president, he could withdraw from Nato, which underpins European security, plus end US support for Ukraine.