European investor patriotism adieu?

FOR all the indignation that Donald Trump’s policy pronouncements often generate, European business leaders do not seem much concerned about the prospect of another Trump presidency. Some even view it rather optimistically.

Not even Trump’s expected unilateral trade moves seem to alter the equation much. In fact, such a move on Trump’s part could provide European business leaders with political cover to help them justify shifting production out of Europe.

The motivation to shift capital and production out of Europe go well beyond the oft-cited lower cost of energy. To the West, labour productivity in the US on average grew 0.8 percentage points faster per year between 2008 and 2023 than in the eurozone. To the East, there is high growth potential and associated investment opportunities.